Shelby Weather

The Year Without A Winter...Warming Up into February

2012-01-26T08:24:00.000-05:00

After some thunderstorms tonight and early Friday, we'll clear out in the Southeast for theWeekend, with a couple of cooler days (but still above normal). Next week we begin a warmup and drying out period. If you're wondering where the cold and snow is, you have to look to Alaska and Siberia. Most of the United States continues to be warm with snowfall well below normal, and we're about to get even warmer entering February. This turning out to be one of the warmest Winters in a decade, and possibly a top 5 warmest overall for the mainland United States in over 100 years, with no end in sight. If we get through mid February and still see no signs of Winter or cold air, it will be very unlikely that any cold air coming into the Southeast would be cold enough to produce snow. Instead, late February and March could be cold, and possibly rainy. However anything is possible in March and there are years where even in March parts of the South and east had big cold waves and snow, but that's the exception rather than the rule. I do think that the longer we go without cold air, the worse the Spring will feel.

Day 10 map, valid Feb 5. Blues and purple are cold air, greens and yellows warm air.

Speaking of Spring, with all the warmth and wet weather lately, and now the increasing sun angle, look for plants that usually wait to bloom in March, begin their opening up period. Next week could see daffodils, irises, azaleas, bradfords, cherries and other trees opening up way ahead of schedule. For western NC I've never seen a snowless Winter, but so far nothing is in sight to produce any flakes at all. We'll see if history is made.

Winter Nowhere in Sight For South...More Heavy Rains

2012-01-24T13:22:00.000-05:00

The year without a Winter continues (except Alaska). The south will continue to get rain every few days. This next system arrives late Thursday for the Southeast and could drop a couple inches of water, esp. on the mountains where some flooding could be a concern after the recent heavy rains and damp grounds. A slight cool down is in store for the Southeast this weekend, but remaining above normal for January. Atleast skies should become partly cloudy with a rare sun appearance, before yet more rain arrives next week. Unfortunately for snow lovers, I don't see any chances of the white stuff until middle February possibly.

Very Warm Pattern Soon ..Near Record High Temps

2012-01-14T10:01:00.000-05:00

Strong warmth to spread across nation after mid January. The same weather pattern that has produced record breaking snow to Alaska and very cold temperatures in Canada will soon re-energize to create an unusual alignment, and a starkly different pattern than the last couple of Winters. The Pacific ocean will send strong storm after storm into the Pacific northwest from British Columbia, Seattle down to northern California over the next 1 to 2 weeks, creating some of the worst flooding and mudslides there in many years, with 10 to 20 FEET of snow in the mountains there.
Meanwhile the East and especially southern part of the country will begin to turn very warm after the middle of next week. All models show the jetstream pulling out of the area and heading well north into eastern Canada, with a Bermuda Ridge building into the Southeast. This will create a sudden burst of warmth and lead to a false early start to Spring by the latter part of January. The warmth could become nearly record breaking between Dallas Little Rock Memphis to Atlanta, where temperatures my get well into the 70's by late January, and 60s to low 70s are going to be common place all across the Southeast and southern plains, with 80's in central and southern Texas. There will be periods of rain and thunderstorms in the South.
The bad news is all the warmth and moisture will cause many plants to bud way too early, daffodils, tulips, irises, some azaleas, Bradfords, Cherries and other plants prone to early warmth, and some are already on the verge of opening up, this new long lived warm pattern should fool them into thinking its Spring. As we know, we're not done with Winter ...it really hasn't arrived and it will be interesting to see how February and early March play out with Winter Weather yet to arrive.

Coldest Airmass in 2 Years !!

2011-12-30T22:45:00.000-05:00

Looks like the coldest airmass in a couple years is headed for the Southeast. It arrives early Monday morning and temperatures will fall through the day in the Western Carolinas and North Georgia. By Tuesday, our temperatures will stay well below freezing in the mountains, with lots of wind-blown snow. Even Asheville and some lower mountain communities will get in on the act.
Meanwhile, I'm forecasting temperatures to be below freezing all day Tuesday in places like Atlanta, Charlotte and Knoxville to Nashville and Greensboro. Shelby may stay in the 20's for a High Temp...thats cold!

The Cold wave lasts around 3 days, and by the end of the week we begin moderating. Take precautions now to wrap pipes, winterize your vehicle and prepare for this Shock to the system type of cold.
High winds and blowing snow in the mountains will make for hazardous and ground blizzard conditions from Monday into Tuesday, so avoid un neccessary travel. Wind chills there will fall well below zero.


A Bitter Cold first half of the Week....this is the forecast "high" temperatures on Tuesday

New Year Might Start off With a BANG

2011-12-27T18:17:00.000-05:00

All models show the northern hemisphere entering another heightened period of extreme amplification--that means that the jetstream will buckle quickly--like a whiplash, and when that happens, major events occur. For several runs now the ECMWF or European model has shown a deep eastern trough early next week. The last couple of runs have really got deeper, colder and stormier for the Southeast and much of the East Coast by next week.
There's too much discrepancy on the model runs right now to say where the storm will develop, but for now its worth watching. I will mention the GFS model, which has been showing many cutoffs well in advance this season, doesn't show this one. However it did briefly have a similar event back on December 22, which made it a run valid at 384 hours..so it could be a lucky strike for it. Either way, despite model indices, such as this being a La Nina, strong +AO and NAO, we still tend to get into a period of strong amplification about every 3 to 4 weeks, and twice these upper lows have dropped a little snow in the Tennessee Valley. Now if the ECMWF model is right, much colder air gets involved, and a potential major deep snowfall would result, but we can't say for sure yet.
One other thing, the ECMWF model also latched on early last year around this time, and caught the Christmas Southeast snowstorm from about a week out...eventually other models joined it. I'll update how I think this goes when I get a feel for one way or the other, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the models work westward slightly with this cutoff, placing the Southeast in a major rain-to-snow storm, and potential historic deep snow for some areas, especially around the Appalachian Chain and adjoing piedmont. No guarantees on any particular storm though and this one may not work out quite like this, but believe me when I say we're nowhere near done with monster sized storms in the South.

I have been stating a while now that this Winter will be an Historic one in terms of snow depth, for some areas of the Southeast. I still think that, and the tell-tale sign is the fact that the models continue to show all the high amplitude pattern and the resulting "cut off" lows. We've seen several this season and very far south, so it's only a matter of time before someone is digging out of a snowfall they will remember a very long time.


Dec 22nd 18z run of GFS

GGEM (Canadian) Model heading toward Deeply Amplified Pattern for the early part of 2012

Very Cloudy Period Coming Up

2011-12-12T07:12:00.000-05:00

Looks like more clouds than not for the Southeast over the next 10 days. There will be a few periods when the sun will shine, but I don't see any totally cloud-free days at all for a long time yet. The southern stream is very active right now and many times in December we get into this kind of flow for the bulk of the month. It will take a strong front to clear all of the clouds and moisture out, and we just don't have that type of front showing up yet. Until then, look for periods of drizzle, light rain and murky, chilly weather. Atleast we're not freezing to death like last year at this time, when Shelby got down into the single digits. On the other hand, I don't see any BBQ grills or flip-flops in our future either.

What's the Chances of a Very Deep Snowstorm this Winter?

2011-12-08T19:37:00.000-05:00

With the two minor snow events already in the Deep South, and in between the warm spells and record high temperatures, and all the rain in the Tennessee Valley and western Carolinas, I'm hearing rumors. Some are the cries of the death throws of Winter already, some are that it's too wet. Pick your poison. It depends on where you are in the South. I have spent a great deal of time studying old weather patterns and specifically, for Shelby and points in western North and western South Carolina, all signs are pointing me toward a very increased chance at an unusually deep, major, rare mega-snowfall this season in our area.

To put things simply, the country, especially the Deep South and Ohio and Tennessee Valley region, are in the midst of an extremely active weather pattern. I've looked at old synoptic weather charts and I honestly don't see any comparison to what we're currently enduring. Time and time again strong upper lows or major "cutoff" storms are swirling through the South land and occasionally up the East Coast. We have been very wet here around Shelby and the mountains of NC and especially wet on the other side of the Appalachians this Fall and now into December. You have to go back to 2003 to find a comparably consistent wet year for most of Cleveland County, where it was consistently "wet" or atleast average. And that says something about our long term drought, especially in upper South Carolina and southern Rutherford and southern Cleveland County. Yet we've been at the center of many major weather events all year long, and if you're a snow lover, here's some news: We've had 3 above normal snow years in a row. The last couple of seasons have been pretty easy to forecast well in advance, but this current season is much more tricky. We don't have sustained cold, and we don't have Gulf lows tracking our way. However, we do have many, and I mean many upper lows that are "cut off" from the main flow. And as we're heading deeper into the colder months, already we are seeing signs of those swirling cutoff's drop snow. Its happened twice now in the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians, and its' not even Winter! If you go back to some of Shelby's biggest snowstorms lately, they mostly come from strong upper lows. February 2004 and March 2009 (yes there is a huge gap between storms) were both strong upper lows that tracked in the right spot.
If you do the math, our odds are upped in a MAJOR way this year, simply because of the shear numbers of these systems that are in the flow. And there's still no end to them. The GFS model, which has been far superior in our neck of the woods this year (ever since just after the Christmas 2010 storm) continues to hone in on these things. They're still lined up as far as the eye can see, and just when the models try to overdevelop the warmth in the Southeast (yes we can get a day or 2 of above normal), the storm comes through and keeps temps cold, pulls down the colder air and turns rain to snow in spots.
The bottom line is the pattern this Winter is very ripe for a major, once in a lifetime, snowstorm in some spot of the South. It's impossible to nail down where this will track at this point, but it could be anywhere in the Southern states, and Shelby lies right in the heart of it. As we get deeper into Winter, and have access to colder and colder air, one of these strong upper lows will pass directly along interstate 85 or Interstate 40, and place the Western Carolinas squarely in the throws of a Foot-Plus snowstorm...the kind that brings down trees and knocks out power.
So while it appears we're not in a sustained cold spell like the previous two Winters, we have a tendency for troughing and very deep troughs and cutoffs in the Southern US this Winter, and in particular the western Carolinas seem to be in a wet pattern. There's no guarantee a major snow-dumping storm like this hits our area, but the odds are probably increased dramatically this year over any other year I can recall, simply because of how the pattern has been, and how it keeps repeating. It may happen in December, January, February or even March. Perhaps not at all for Shelby proper, but the odds do favor us. I also noticed that during general overrunning events of the last decade of Winters, our area doesn't do quite as well in snowfall accumulations, however during strong upper lows and cutoffs, we do extremely well. Think February 26, 2004 and March 1, 2009...both were strong cutoffs in a very benign year. Based on what I'm seeing in the pattern this year, despite long range generic forecasts for our area, I have to say with strong conviction that we are heading toward a tree-smashing, power-thwarting, roof-collapsing whopper of a snowstorm. You've been warned.

Feb 2010 storm Satellite

Odds Are Higher Than Normal For One Or More Major Snowfalls In the Deep South This Winter, Thanks To Numerous "Cut-off and Upper-Lows"

What a Storm! Deep Cut- Off Low to bring Rain, Winds, Snow To South

2011-11-27T10:09:00.000-05:00

The models have been showing a developing deep "cutoff" low for a while now and its developing now. Heavy rain will pull up from the Gulf across the Southeast Sunday and Monday, reaching the western Carolinas late Monday. Some impressive rain totals will occur in northern GA and the mountains of NC with this, possibly topping 5". Meanwhile cold air will wrap around the low and rain will change to snow in Memphis and western Tennessee and northern Mississippi on Monday, and spread deeper into Mississippi and northern Alabama by late Monday night.

The cold air will wrap completely around the low in Mississippi and Alabama overnight Monday night and a snow band will likely spread across central and northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia by Tuesday morning, possibly even producing a few flakes in the western Carolina foothills and western Piedmont by Tuesday afternoon as the cold core aloft comes directly overhead. By then snow will be falling in the mountains of TN and NC as the system begins to pull north into the MidAtlantic (rain there), but snow for the mountains. A very unusual system, and will likely go down as "historic" with standard deviations 4 to 5 SD below normal.

Major Storm in Deep South/Southeast Heavy rain/Wet Snow for some

2011-11-25T22:33:00.001-05:00

I could keep on waiting for the runs to keep coming out but the trend is fully back to a cutoff. And maybe further west than the Miss. River but for now I'm settling on around MEM or TN/MS border region, possibly beginning in central Arkansas. As the low cuts off it will continue to tighten and strengthen up, and actually grow colder at the core. However this is still not a really cold cutoff, and the further west it cuts off, probably the warmer it would be, the further east in the TN valley, the colder, thanks to having a longer connection with the northern stream before pinching off. This is going to be a very big deal. Its' not often we get 4 or 5 contours closed off this far south. The GFS seems to have had the right idea nearly a week ago, and pretty much all the ensembles and ops. have settled on a lower Miss or Tn. Valley strong cutoff that could pinwheel for acouple of days if not more.
The models are frequently too quick to move a cutoff (think Sept. Ohio Valley deep cutoff that sat a week). But for now, it appears we're in for a strong southerly fetch against a strong, very sharp trough that creates exceptionally good lift and a tap with the Gulf, so thunderstorms and severe is possible but I haven't seen too much of the severe parameters. Normally a cutoff in this location will funnel heavy but sort of narrow band that trains over the same areas, and that looks to be straight up through Alabama and western GA into Tenn. curving back into a developing axis of deformation. On the northwest side, precip may get an extra lift later on all th way to the Ohio River and southern Illinois.
The rain will probably come in atleast a couple good bands each producing a couple of inches for part of GA and Al, and the western Carolinas. Dynamics weaken further north but later on the storm could phase with another incoming trough, in which case the whole system would strengthen, and become a major snow maker for inland Northeast, but thats very far out.
As the cold air aloft begins to wrap on the west side, then rotate under the 850 low around MEM, rain may change to snow in central Ark, northern Miss even down to central Miss, nrn La and spread into western Alabama later on if the core of the lowest heights go toward the Tenn. River Valley and then southern Apps region. Time of day and precip rates will mean everything since we're dealing with marginal air and climo this time of year, but usually strong cutoffs of this caliber are capable of dyamic cooling down to the surface (even in daylight if heavy enough), but can vary tremendously from one city to the next. This could be a situation where at one point its snowing in Jackson Mississippi and raining in Nashville. And then snowing in Nashville but raining in Pittsburg. Depends on the location of the core and the wrap around moisture and precip rates.
Another major aspect will be the rain totals and rainfall rates. The models are pretty widespread and heavy through the Tenn Valley and probably not quite heavy enough in the Apps. If it cuts off too far west, that would reduce the totals for the southern facing Apps of northeast GA and western NC, but with the ensembles and most models showing the nature, location and orientation of the 3 to 5 contour cutoff, easily flooding type rains could be a problem esp. if it comes at rates like .50" an hour for 6 plus hours, which is very possible in one or more of the heavy bands that rotates through.
I think most have seen what strong cutoff lows are capable of, and keep in mind the models and soundings and such aren't gospel..these things do strange things all the time. And this particular one is one of the strongest I've seen modeled this far south. I'm sure there's been others but not lately, and not in the Deep South, and not at this time of year. Anything is possible and I'd bet the models have a trick up their sleeve yet, for example, possible phasing with another wave later next week if the system hangs around very long in the South. Or the system may end up further west, which would mean it won't be as cold core, so very little snow at all. This is my best call for now. I'm finishing this up and the 00zNAM is in. Nothing really to change my mind except to re-iterate, this is going to be a very big deal across the South. Lots of rain, hour to hour vast weather changes, and from city to city in the same state. If you like interesting weather, this should suit you on many levels. And for the snowlovers, as long as the models don't begin getting warmer with the cold intrusion, I think a surprise snow report will occur Sunday night , Monday or Monday night into Tuesday "somewhere". As always, have fun with this storm! Its' been a blast to follow all week long.

Warming Up Soon

2011-11-12T07:55:00.000-05:00

A widespread hard freeze this Saturday morning in the Southeast states, but the high pressure will slide offshore today and strong return flow begins as early as this afternoon... Translation: warm up begins this afternoon for most of us, and will be in full force by Sunday afternoon.

Projected rainfall from the Tuesday night/Wednesday system

Our next rain should arrive Tuesday afternoon and then that slides quickly off the east coast. It appears one system after another should arrive over the next 10 days, but we won't be dealing with cold air in the East again until after the middle of the month, probably toward the end of the month as the cold air in Canada slides into the Rockies and western states. Once the flow re-aligns later this month or early in December, some truly cold arctic air may start to arrive and then begin a series of Winter storms across part of the country. Enjoy the mild break in the weather.

Snow and Sleet In NC Mountains, Followed by First Widespread Frost

2011-10-27T07:10:00.000-04:00

A rapidly developing East Coast storm will spread cold rain over the Carolinas and north Georgia Friday afternoon, when temperatures will drop almost 30 degrees from where they will be on Thursday afternoon. Look for temperatures to hold steady in the upper 40's across western NC in places like Hickory and Charlotte, after being in the 70's just a day before. Meanwhile the air aloft will get cold enough to produce snow in the northern mountains of NC and southwest Virginia by Friday night and Saturday. I can't say how much precip will fall at this time, but it could be significant enough for accumulations overnight and early Saturday morning, as the storm strengthens going up the East Coast.


Big Switch From Thursday into Friday and Early Saturday along the East Coast

Sun sunshine could break out later Saturday afternoon, as the clear skies and high pressure build in, but here comes the Carolinas first widespread frost and freeze. By Sunday morning, the heavy dew will have turned to an icing of frost across many a windshield by dawn, with temperatures all across the piedmont in the low to mid 30's, with some upper 20's in the foothills and mountains. By Sunday afternoon we will have a beautiful sunny, but still chilly, day.

Rapid Changes This Week...Big Storm, then Colder and Windy

2011-10-16T18:12:00.000-04:00

A deepening storm will begin in the northern Gulf and drench Florida Monday and Tuesday, while spreading quickly developing rain in Georgia and the Carolinas late Tuesday and into Wednesday, before really turning into a major system for the East Coast mid week. By the time the storm closes off and occludes in upstate New York, enough cold air will have spread down the Appalachian Chain early Thursday morning for the Flakes to be falling once again, for the higher elevations.
The rest of the Eastern US will be clearing out, but windy and colder. By Friday and Saturday mornings, frost may be a concern in the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, even down into northern Mississippi, Alabama Georgia and the Carolinas by Saturday morning as the winds go calm directly underneath high pressure. A very active week coming up!

Winter Outlook 2011-2012 ... Cold And Stormy Midwest to Southeast

2011-10-14T23:23:00.000-04:00

One of the reasons some long range forecasts call for a "typical" climatogical forecast for Winter, such as playing the usual "el nino" or "la nina"
climatology forecast, is because in the past, those ENSO states have given a typical 30 year pattern. However, starting about 10 years ago, the various
multi-decadal indicies have been in a phase change, and as we've seen with many long range Winter Forecasts (and Summer),and if you don't account for the phase changes and overlappings, the outlooks have busted. Just last year, most every forecaster went with a traditional "la nina" temperature and precipitation pattern map forecast across the United States, but that
didnt' work out.(self included).
Even though short range weather forecast accuracy has increased tremendously through much better weather modeling and real-time data input, the long range
forecasts leave a lot to be desired. But, that is changing quickly I think. More and more is being learned quickly with using all the various indicies, such
as PDO (pacific-decadal oscillation), NAO (north atlantic oscillation), and a host of other oscillations and forcings around the globe, all of which tie in
with the main forcing from either "El Nino", "La Nina" or neutral state. We're still a ways off from getting long range forecasting accurate enough to be
truly viable to the average person, but some forecasters are really working hard at getting it right.
Aside from the main players, there's a few new pieces to add to the puzzle, but I won't get technical with the use of those, even though they may be just as important as those mentioned above. Things like Geo-magnetism, solar wind, and tropical forcing in the Pacific can alter the overall flow around the globe. At current, we are still in a relaxed period of sunspot activity and it's not rising as fast as once thought. It's believed the relative minimum sunspot activity that led to the Dalton and Maunder time frame cold periods in western Europe and the United States has some correlation in the basically cold period of the time around the 1600's and again in the late 1800's, then it rose during the 1900's, roughly speaking. The trend lately has been down, but there are spikes within decades so it's difficult to make an accurate, strategic year to year correlation.
A much better index to predict the overall temperature pattern in the Eastern United States especially, is the North Atlantic Oscillation. If you look at the graph, you can see that its state corresponds pretty nicely with what kind of temperatures occurred in the Eastern US, and fits almost perfectly to the year. In laymen's terms, a negative NAO simply means a strong high pressure has closed off and is a bubble of warmer air over Greenland or thereabouts (there are east and west based versions). A positive NAO means there is no high pressure there, and thus, the air in Canada moves more eastward, not southbound such that occurs during negative phases. Again, there are spikes within the phases, but overall, a negative phase of the NAO usually directly relates to "cold and stormy" in the eastern United States, and that has been exactly the case for each of the past three Winters. Once we can accurately forecast the long range state of the NAO, we can much more accurately forecast the temperature profiles. As of now, we can only forecast it several weeks in advance, but here's the caveat: I've been forecasting a much more negative state to the NAO for a couple of years now, and the long term 30 year trend is obvious...we're in for colder Winters. This index, in my opinion, trumps them all. The big snows and cold of the past several years in the MidAtlantic, Northeast and even Southern Appalachians and interior Southeast directly fall in line with the negative NAO states. The same can be said basically speaking for the 1960's, the late 1970's and the late 1800's...when the NAO goes negative, regardless of ENSO state, snowfall becomes above normal and temperature goes below normal. In the last few years, the NAO has been running negative for an unusually long time, and rivals the cold 1960's, late 1970's and late 1800's. The trend on the graph is pretty obvious, we're in a long term 30 year cycle of negative NAO. Much like the enhanced hurricane activity prediction that came out in the 1990's, there are just some signs we can see that point to a period in general, and this is one of those periods. Just like though we can't say for sure any one particular year won't be the exception , for example, not every year in the last 10 has been extremely hurricane active, overall, the trend can be seen with some certainty. And for the next 25 years roughly, the Eastern United States is in store for more unusually cold, and active weather, but there are those spikes within phases, that will be the exception to the rule. So the bottom line is there are phases within phases, those "spikes", and looking back at actual data regarding temps and precip, we can clearly see the overall graph points to enhanced NAO blocking, which means cold and stormy during Winter.
So for this Winter, I'm predicting another below normal temperature and very active period in the Southeast, Tennessee, Valley and lower MidAtlantic/Interior Southeast, with a quiet Southwest and Southern Plains. The difference this year could be the enhanced shortwaves generating more storminess in the East as La Nina could weaken toward the first of the year. Already, the pattern this Fall has been increased shortwaves and there are signs of Greenland Blocking, with several strong damming episodes occurring, particularly in the Carolinas and Virginia. We can't predict damming months in advance, but the damming events have been lacking the last several years and the fact they've shown up lately is probably a clue that we're not done with those.
I'm not forecasting above normal precipitation in the Southeast states, but only Florida and the immediate surrounding region should be below normal...the rest should be around normal thanks to an active stream with more embedded shortwaves than last season. Most precip events will still be rain, but I'm expecting enough cold air for there to be above normal snow in the southern Apps and Tennessee Valley, and the odds of one significant ice storm in the damming regions is fairly high this year, thanks to the precedent damming already seen,the fact that temperatures will likely be below normal, and the fact storm tracks are supressed, plus odds favor one anytime since it's been a while. I'd actually be pretty suprised to NOT have a major ice event from northeast Georgia to the central Carolinas and southern Virginia this Winter.

October Comes in Pretty Cold! First SnowFlakes in Mountains?

2011-09-26T13:51:00.000-04:00

The pattern will be changing quickly by Friday afternoon as a strong cold front pushes into the Eastern states. A Canadian High pressure will send a strong cold front crossing the Appalachians late Friday evening and deliver the first widespread, cold and dry airmass of the season into the Southeast. The trough may be deep enough and cold enough to produce the first snowflakes in the higher mountains of West Virginia, northeast Tennessee and western North Carolina at some point on Saturday. But this will only be for the highest of elevations like Roan Mountain, Clingmans Dome, Grandfather and Mt. Mitchell. The rest of the Southeast will finally clear out of the murky mess that we've endured for almost 2 weeks! Both Saturday and Sunday mornings will be very chilly in the piedmont of the Carolinas and Georgia, with lows possibly getting into the upper 30's to low 40's.

Sneak Peak at the Weather For the Cleveland County Fair

2011-09-24T17:39:00.000-04:00

Looks like the 87th Annual Cleveland County Fair will get off to a great start. On the unofficial opening night (Wednesday) there will still be a slight chance of showers as the Upper Low that has plagued us for several days finally gets shoved east. And watch out for the incoming cold front Friday Night...it appears that front will be dry but I can't promise that just yet, as there could be just a quick line of showers ahead of it, but the big news will be the COLD BLAST that rushes in behind this front. Next weekend is shaping up to be a very cold one as the first Canadian Airmass comes down into the Eastern States. We could be looking at lows in the upper 30's at some point to start October! Otherwise, the skies will clear up to beautiful Carolina Blue with Sunny afternoons and crystal clear nights once the front has passed.

Cleveland County Fair Weather

2011-09-21T09:05:00.000-04:00

The unofficial opening Wednesday is just a week away, and we can take a preliminary sneak peek at 7 days out. So far, looks like a cool start as a strong upper low in the Northeast will bring a dry, but cool northwest wind flow into North Carolina on Wednesday. I'll update the blog daily to give my readers a "heads up" on what the weather will be like each day for the Fair, which runs September 29th through October 8th.

Southern Appalachian Leaf Season- - - BEST in Many Years Likely

2011-09-20T20:57:00.000-04:00

Lots of factors determine the leaf viewing season in our Climate and we're blessed with many different types of hardwoods and extensive forests in the Southeast. But the preceding weather conditions for the previous 2 seasons is probably the most important. Based on this year's weather patterns, I think the Great Smokies and Blue Ridge of Tennessee, North Carolina and Southeast Kentucky and western Virginia will be a standout. There were several high wind episodes earlier in the Spring and Summer, which oddly enough, may have helped strip weaker limbs and trees, and the rainfall was neither too heavy nor light. Contrast that with what may be too much rain (on top of previously stressed trees from extreme heat and drought) in eastern NC and part of eastern Virginia. In the heart of the piedmont of Georgia and the Carolinas, I'm going for above average color.

One of the main reasons for this year's banner outlook is the extremely long growing season. It began fairly early after a harsh, cold Winter. Many times, especially in the last decade, a Spring Freeze occurred which disrupted natural leaf procession. Of course, if we end up with a major storm, or heavy rain event, or even prolonged heat into October, that will affect my outlook, but so far, so good I think.

Record Cold Friday Possible

2011-09-14T18:14:00.000-04:00

Friday Morning Surface Temperature Isotherms

Friday Midday Temperature Isotherms

Charlotte's official minimum "high" temperature on Friday Sept. 16 is 61 degrees set in 1924, and that looks like its going to be close to being broken. I expect temps to start in the upper 50's early Friday morning and stay around 60 for most of the day, possibly even falling if enough light rain develops. Areas west and northwest of Charlotte should go down into the middle 50's by late afternoon and even into the lower 50's by Friday night. This includes Shelby, where I'm forecasting the high to be around sunrise Friday morning, and either hold steady or slowly fall through the day into the 50's. If enough rain develops , parts of Rutherford or Cleveland County could go into the upper 40's very late Friday night or early Saturday morning! If the rain or drizzle doesn't materialize, then temps would be slightly warmer than forecast. Either way, its going to be cloudy, windy, drizzly, and cool with temperatures likely in the 50's for the majority of Friday and the first half of Saturday.

2011-09-13T13:32:00.001-04:00

Cold Friday and Saturday!!!! As I called for several days ago, the models are still showing the extreme "Cold Air Damming" event in the western piedmont and foothills of the Carolinas and Virginia, beginning Friday and continuing through Saturday. It looks like we're heading down to around 30 to 35 degrees below normal! Yikes, imagine having 30 degrees below normal in mid January. That would be like having a high temperature of 20 degrees for Shelby.

Don't say you haven't been warned. Dress appropriately for Friday night games and events in the Carolinas and Virginia, where a damp, cold, misty Friday night is in store, with strong northeast winds howling and temperatures holding steady between 45 and 50 degrees west of Interstate 77 and the whole western NC region. Temperatures will hold in this range until late Saturday afternoon when we finally push back into the low 50's, still well below normal throughout the weekend.

The BIG Chill Coming to Carolinas and Virginia Friday/Saturday

2011-09-11T16:18:00.001-04:00

GFS model portrays a Cold, Rainy Friday and early Saturday in the Carolinas and VA with temps staying in the 40s to 50s

The weather models continue to have a classic "Cold Air Damming" event showing up for Friday and Saturday for Virginia and the Carolinas, especially NC. "Maria" is forecast to get absorbed into the jetstream off Maine, and this vortex will help squeeze a strong building surface high down the east side of the Appalachians on Friday and Saturday, possibly into Sunday. The biggest question mark is where the rain sets up? Right now, its hard to buy the GFS solution of a rainy Friday night in much of the Carolinas and Virginia , and its strange 30 degree high temperature departures. Its showing high temperatures in Charlotte and Hickory and Greensboro remaining mostly in the 50's with even upper 40's over part of the Piedmont, during the daylight hours on Friday! Thats unbelievably cold for September. If the rain doesn't materialize, we'll still have a raw, blustery day on Friday throughout the Carolinas and Virginia, but temperatures won't be quite that cool. Strong northeast winds, and a possibility of a developing Gale offshore the Outer Banks. I'll have an update by midweek to see how the weather is for the Friday Night Games.

2011-09-09T06:27:00.000-04:00

See the big dip in the jetstream over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley? Thats indicative of the first strong Autumn airmass diving in from Canada later next week. Other models have it too, thanks to a building ridge in Western Canada that forces the flow to carve out a deep trough in the East eventually.
Until then, its smooth sailing, but we still have to watch what "Nate" does in the lower Gulf. There's the chance he gets pulled up early next week into the Gulf states anywhere from Florida to Lousiana, but chances are a little higher that he gets steered into Mexico...something worth watching.

First Widespread Blast of Fall-like Air possibly arrives late next week

Showers will accompany the front next Thursday or so when the Canadian front comes into the Southeast and Eastern states, and then be followed by really cool Autumn-like air, with high temps in the 50's for the high mountains, 60's in the lower elevations and comfy 70's well south into Georgia and South Carolina. Lows could be 30's for the mountains and parts of the Ohio Valley with frost even possible some areas, further south the lows would be upper 40's to upper 50's. After a long hot Summer, this would be a welcome respite.

Tropical Storm Lee to Bring Heavy Rains, and Flooding to Parts of Southeast

2011-09-04T16:28:00.000-04:00

First off, we need the rain in the western Carolinas, part of Georgia and other parts of the Southeast, where the 2nd hottest Summer on record combined with well below normal rainfall to create dwindling water supplies. Check out Hickory Creek in south Shelby, one of the major tributaries to First Broad. It looks like its nearly dried up, and never fully recovered from when it did completely stop flowing in October 2007. Normally, this stream is pretty large, ironically if it were at full stream now, it would be nearly exactly how the First Broad River looks now.

As the remnants of Lee come inland, if the models are right on its slow movement, nearly all the interior Southeast states are looking at a major rain, long duration event, similar to what happened with "Fay" in 2008. Shelby receieved around 7" of rain in two days, and parts of the area got over 10", it will come down to small scale factors as to who gets how much. Normally, the upslope favored regions of the mountains in western NC and far northeast Georgia do well in these types of events, so the Nantahala and Chattahooche and Pisgah Forest regions will be the recipients of the most rain award when all is said and done. Parts of Mississippi and Alabama closer to the center of circulation and enhanced lifting caused by a squeeze play of the front becoming orthogonal to the flow also will max out on some heavy totals, possibly exceeding 10" there. Flash Flood Watches are issued in a large part of the Southeast.

asBy Monday afternoon heavy rain will be falling across the western Carolinas all the way back to Mississippi as strong upslope flow comes into the higher terrrain of the Carolinas, and feeder bands from the Gulf continue to spiral inland around the main center in lower Alabama. From here the models aren't quite sure whether the center will get swept northeast totally, or be left to lolligag in Alabama. Most keep the system west of the Appalachians, so this will allow a wedge type of front to drop into the Carolinas east of the mountains, which would ultimately allow heavy rain to ramp up for the western third of the Carolinas, in addition to dropping our temperatures greatly on Tuesday. Another consequence would be enhanced lifting from the front itself, in addition to the center of "lee" still being well west. Even if a dry slot opens up , the mid level flow would wring out moisture efficiently over the southeast facing slopes of the NC, SC and GA mountains, where grand weekly totals would surpass 12" if , thats IF the models are right in the synoptic placement of Lee, the front, and everything else. Hard to say yet. But regardless, heavy rains will occur, the only question is just how much. There's a huge difference between 5" over 3 days and 10" or even more over about 5 days. Its definitely one of the wetter weeks in a while, possibly the wettest in several years, and some towns could get 15 to 20 PERCENT of their annual average rainfall this week.

Rainfall Totals Through Wednesday PM

Big Labor Day Rainfall, Flooding in part of the Southeast

2011-09-02T05:45:00.000-04:00

Developing tropical storm "Lee" is going to steal the show over the next few days and into next week. All the models agree on pulling the system slowly northward into Louisiana and then it lolligags and interacts with a frong over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. The 3 main camps for the track are 1) the storm gets missed, and just stalls in southern Louisiana 2), the storm gets fully swept up by the front Sunday and gets sheared up the east coast and 3), the front acts to pull it inland, then leaves part of the circulation behind and awaits the next front later next week. The third option is what the GFS and ECMWF models are going for right now and thats how I'm leaning, but its not certain at this early stage yet. The guaranteed heavy rains are in southern Louisiana and the Gulf coast of Miss, Alabama. Where over 10" and possibly up to 20" of rain will fall.

The unusual aspect of this storm is how it may interact with a decaying front, allowing a slow moving, long duration heavy rain event to unfold. Usually, the first part of the heavy rains occur on the western flank of the circulation, and where the front enhances convergence, and that means Sunday and Mondays heavy rains will occur in Louisiana, spreading into southeast Arkansas , western Tennessee and northern Mississippi and Alabama...but by later Monday that heavy rain will transfer quickly eastward to the front as its draped from central Tennessee , northern half of Alabama and northern GA and western Carolinas. If the front moves as slow as shown by the GFS and ECMWF, and the tropical depression remains in Alabama, that would place the mountains of Georgia and western NC in a true flood event, with possibly a foot of rain falling in a couple of days. But its still early and the models are just now latching on to the track of the system and how it interacts. Overall, an unusual setup. Normally, a tropical system comes inland and moves right along, but those few that don't, (like Alberto for example), extreme rain amounts can occur.

Heavy Rain potential Sunday through Most of next week.

Hurricane Irene's Track

2011-08-24T11:11:00.000-04:00

The official forecast track continues to slide east, but the axis of the track appears to hug the east coast just offshore from NC to Maine, but possibly coming inland around New England (Rhode Island, Massachusettes, Maine) as a power storm.

She's at CAT 3 strenth now and it may even deepen to a Category 4 just offshore the Outer Banks region. If the track is slightly off to the left, the effects would be even more worse than they appear to be, so it's worth watching, as ever mile east of west of the guidance track makes a huge difference.

Tracking Soon-to-be "IRENE"

2011-08-20T16:04:00.000-04:00

The models are still showing a developing "Irene" that will be crossing the Islands the next couple of days , en route to the Dominican Republic and from there the models take it across eastern Cuba and bring it to near southern Florida around Thursday. As always with forecasting tropical systems, the track is very uncertain, but for several days now the big models have stayed in the same basic ballpark...ie, somewhere in the Southeast or Gulf states as to where the impacts could occur next weekend.

ECMWF track valid 12z Sat Aug 20 2011

Here is a look at the 12Z run of the European Model (ECMWF) from Saturday Aug 20, 2011. It brings the storm into the east coast of Florida then works toward the Georgia coast and begins to pull inland toward Athens and then fills slowly over a couple of days. As the storm rains itself out of over the Southern Appalachians , it eventually gets pulled north and merges into the incoming cold front. The GFS (American) model is nearly identical, but doesnt' stall the storm in northern Georgia. The overall track could still be anywhere from southern Florida to the Eastern Carolinas or even anywhere along the Gulf states. If the storm does as the GFS and ECMWF have been showing the last few days, then the Southeast is in for flooding rains in addition to high winds where the storm comes inland. The flooding rains would be enhanced in the Southern Appalachians, especially where southeast flow slams into the southeast facing slopes of the escarpment in western NC, upper SC and northern GA. Something to think about in case the worst case scenario pans out. In fact, the models are showing the worst case possible track for the most flooding rains across most of the western half of the Carolinas and nearly all of Georgia, but again the track could change.

Next weekend...Hurricane approaching the Southeast Coast or Gulf

2011-08-18T15:23:00.000-04:00

The models have been adamant showing either Harvey or Irene developing in the open Atlantic and slowly heading toward the Domincan Republic (Hispaniola). From there, its too far out to say whether an incoming trough can pick it up, nudge it north some degree, or totally bypass it and allow it to continue west toward Cuba or southern Florida. Either way, there are many options, but there's no denying the atmospheric conditions are forecast to be in a prime state for development of this tropical system by then.
There will be a closed high in the western Plains or Rockies and another closed high (Bermuda High) in the Atlantic, so the system will likely head for the weakness between them. Right now, that points to a huge swath from the Gulf of Mexico to Florida and even the entire East Coast. By early next week, we can begin to narrow down the cone of impact much better.

The yellow circled region shows the system in question and is forecast to become a major hurricane on the weather models by 7 days with an impact possible somewhere in the states by 10 days. Doesn't look like much now, but thats forecast to change by early next week.

Unsettled, Showery Weekend- - Damper on Perseid Meteor Show

2011-08-11T14:45:00.000-04:00

The Perseid meteor shower will be at peak early Saturday morning, but unfortunately this time we have a full moon that will drown out all but the brightest trails. Even without the moon's intereference, in the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, this year is pure bad timing because it appears the weather will also not cooperate. We'll have a high pressure to our north, and its location almost certainly dictates an easterly component to the surface winds. Now the GFS model is clearly showing showers, sprinkles or at the very least, a totally cloudy sky overnight Friday. It's possible the onshore flow that banks the clouds and light rain into the western Carolinas is going to be much weaker than advertised, but usually an east wind with moisture in the air is indicative of a fairly cloudy sky. Still, its worth looking out late Friday night or early Saturday just in case some breaks appear.
Showers and storms really begin to crank up late Saturday night as a pattern change gets underway. A deep trough will carve out into the Ohio Valley and Eastern States by Sunday and Monday, and help usher in our first dry airmass since last Spring. It will be a welcome relief with dewpoints dropping into the 50's for the Carolinas and Georgia, and actual temperatures will be more tolerable as well. Since the air is going to be so dry, our nighttime temps Monday night and Tuesday night should be able to get down into the 60's in the piedmont and possibly even the 50's in the foothills of the Carolinas and Virginia. The mountains may even touch the upper 40's...a true taste of Fall.

Friday night surface map from GFS...barbs indicate east winds, green colors portray areas of rain.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the rains, which are always welcome since we tend to lean on the dryside as of late.

Scorching "Fry"Day and Hot Weekend!

2011-07-27T10:25:00.000-04:00


A Hot Friday is on tap. The temperature will surpass 100 in central NC, and get very near 100 in Upper SC and the remainder of the Carolinas except the Mountains and Coast.

The setup for Friday into the weekend is looking wickedly hot for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. All the models have a strong area of sinking hot air, and some downsloping to aid in the compressional heating effects, along with dry ground and little in the way of clouds. The warmth in the upper levels goes up to +24 deg. celcius, which is more than enough to take temperatures at the surface to over 100 degrees F. Places like Raleigh and the Research Triangle and Triad regions of the piedmont of NC will easily surpass the century mark on Friday and again Saturday. There's always the chance that a few clouds from debris cirrus will encroach at some point from the west, which would help shave some degrees off the high temps, but right now that looks unlikely.

A Few Thunderstorms Sunday/Monday...Then Another Strong HeatWave

2011-07-24T12:05:00.000-04:00

The Spartanburg-Shelby-Charlotte corridor has yet to reach 100 degrees this Summer, but we have a real shot beginning Thursday of this week, and even a better chance of reaching 100 on Friday and Saturday. Another strong ridge of high pressure will form right over the western Carolinas by late week and sit over the region, providing the nearly ideal flow and pattern situation to cook the region with 100 degree temps. Many areas just east of this region have hit 100 several times this year, and now its our turn to really crank up the heat, with strong downslope winds and sunny skies.

Meanwhile this afternoon we have a slight chance of thunderstorms. If we don't get some rain either Sunday or Monday, this area's chance of any rain goes downhill to nearly nothing by mid and late week, as the heatwave cranks back up over the Carolinas.

Strong Line of Thunderstorms This Evening

2011-07-19T08:06:00.000-04:00

A developing Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) will be traveling from Ohio , southward toward the southern Appalachians this afternoon. This line of storms looks like it will have upper level support all the way into North Carolina and Tennessee by late afternoon, and then continue propogating south and bend southwestward toward into parts of South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama tonight, while weakening. This type of flow has occurred numerous times this season, sometimes with severe results, so keep up to date with the forecast in case severe thunderstorm watches are issued later today.

After today, the heat will be building. I'm forecasting temperatures to get as high as 95 in Shelby on Thursday and Friday, and possibly into the upper 90's in central and eastern NC by that time. With the humidity, our heat index numbers may get close to 100 for a couple of days but afternoon chances of thunderstorms will still be around.

Carolinas Heat Wave Coming to Abrupt End !

2011-07-13T13:30:00.000-04:00

Today will be the last really hot day in the Carolinas until next week. We have a strong front that will usher in cooler (and drier air) by Thursday evening, and when Friday morning comes..the rains could be falling! Nice, steady , cooler rains over western Carolinas and northern Georgia. The setup is a classic "damming" event, where a high pressure nudges down the eastern slopes of the Appalachian chain, and moisture from the Atlantic rushes onshore up into the mountains of the southern Apps. This process is an efficient light rain maker for most of the western Carolinas and eastern Georgia. It appears our temperatures are taking a nose dive , resting somewhere in the upper 60's for the mountains and staying in the 70's for the western Piedmont on Friday...so places like Greenville to Charlotte are going from upper 90's to mid 70's?? Thats a 25 degree drop!
Enjoy the much cooler and damper air coming up. By Sunday, the pattern begins to change and the heat comes back, but so far it doesn't look quite as hot as we've been getting.

Rain totals will be the highest around the best upslope areas of western NC, SC and northeast GA, but many areas of the Carolinas and Georgia will benefit from atleast some rains during these two days. A general 1" rain will be common in places like Spartanburg to Shelby, with a tapering to less amounts further east, and an increase to several inches possible in northeast GA and the southwest mountains of NC.

Extreme Heat Wave Still Likely

2011-06-28T13:11:00.000-04:00

Just a quick note on the upcoming HOT weekend. The GFS is still portraying a strong upper high to form over the Apps region of the East and South, and has high dewpoints to go along with the heat, especially in the piedmont regions. Its showing widespread 100 degree temperatures, and has low temperatures in upper South Carolina Sunday morning around 80 degrees. Sunday could be the hotter of the two days with many places outside the mountains climbing to around 101 to 103 degrees on the thermometer. The really dangerous part of this heatwave is going to be the sultry , humid airmass that accompanies the hot air. This time, many areas of the region are coming off a few days of widespread showers and thunderstorms, so the ground will release tons of low level moisture into the hot airmass, making it feel incredibly uncomfortable.

High Temps on Saturday and Sunday could pass the Century Mark, and Heat Index numbers will go well over 100.

Be sure to stay indoors if you can and check on the elderly folks often and take especially good care of the outside animals and keep hydrated with plenty of water. A heat index of 110 or 115 degrees is extremely dangerous.

Strong to Severe Heat Wave Next Weekend Across the South

2011-06-27T13:29:00.000-04:00

Weather factors are lining up to produce the hottest Heat Wave so far this season in areas of the Carolinas to Mid Mississippi Valley region. From St. Louis, Memphis, across the Tennessee Valley to Atlanta and Charlotte the region will come under a strong building High Pressure aloft. The GFS model, which has been blowing away the European version for the last couple of seasons, shows strong signs of this heat wave arriving late Friday and really expanding in the red shaded region this weekend.

Some areas near the Mississippi River will have extreme low level moisture to go along with the high heat, making conditions unbearable.

A deadly combination of extremely high dewpoints and extremely high upper air temperatures, in addition to the perfect placement of the closed 850mb and 500mb closed ridges, all point to a very dangerous heat wave. The model even has low temperatures failing to get below 80 or 82 degrees at night in parts of the South, and has heat index (feels like) temperatures of over 116 to near 120 degrees in parts of Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky , western Tennessee where the extremely high dewpoint air will make conditions feel miserable. Air conditioning is a must have for survival in conditions like this, so please check on the elderly and pets during the day time, and stay as cool as possible. The actual temperatures on either Saturday, Sunday or both should top over 100 degrees on a widespread basis in this region (outside the higher elevations of the mountains), and nighttime will offer very little relief from the horrid heat and humidity. The heat wave should work back west early next week and a strong northwest flow will bring slightly cooler air to the region.

More Severe Weather Likely this Afternoon

2011-06-19T08:56:00.000-04:00

A very strong upper wave now in western Kentucky will begin diving southeast toward Tennessee and the Carolinas today and is already being accompanied by tornadoes and high winds. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is forecasting this line to intensify this Father's Day , meaning once again the Carolinas will be at risk for another major line of thunderstorms with widespread winds over 50mph, possibly up to 80mph, with hail high winds, and this time tornadoes can't be ruled out. There's additional shear thanks to how the atmosphere is set up today, so the line may end up being a vicious line capable of toppling trees and producing high winds on a very widespread basis. So far this season, many of these lines of storms have gained even more momentum and power as they rocket down the east side of the Appalachian mountains placing the western and central piedmont of the Carolinas in a very dangerous spot.

There may be one more of these Meso Scale Convective Complexes to affect the Carolinas Monday, and then we'll return to normal afternoon "pop up" storms on a more isolated basis. Meanwhile the heat will build this week with temps hitting the middle and upper 90's.

Cooler, Wetter, Stormier ...Its coming

2011-06-12T12:57:00.000-04:00

The jetstream flow is about to shake up. Strong upper disturbances will roll across the upper Midwest to Carolinas beginning midweek, being forced south from their normal location. A very active Pacific flow will send strong waves of low pressure almost on a daily basis beginning midweek, and this pattern looks to lock in for a while. For areas of the South and East that need rain (and have been missed), I foresee huge masses of thunderstorms, large enough to encompass entire states as they roll east and southeast. As time wears on toward next weekend, the central Plains should be the immenating point, and again daily masses of storms will roll due east toward the Southeast and MidAtlantic. These won't be your typical afternoon "pop up" kind of storms, instead they will be synoptically driven and can occur morning, noon and midnight. Unfortunately as with any storms in the Summer, some will become severe and produce hail, vivid and dangerous lightning and high winds. So be on guard for a period of very active weather coming up for a large region of the country, especially around the Midwest to lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the Carolinas.

Big Changes Next Week

2011-06-10T08:33:00.000-04:00

Atleast a temporary change is coming. A strong front will slip down through the Carolinas early Monday, and usher in cooler (and much drier!) air for a couple days. This new airmass will atleast scour out the low level ozone and polluted air that has been encompassing the region for the last week.

Lows Tuesday morning could be upper 50's around the northern Piedmont NC, with highs statewide mostly 80's (instead of 90s!)

Temperatures could dip into the 50's in North Carolina, even outside the mountains especially around the northern piedmont near Winston Salem to Greensboro on Tuesday Morning. The lower humidity will be the really noticeable change. Enjoy!

Before this hits, we have a couple more days of daily afternoon thunderstorm chances. Friday, Saturday and Sunday should all 3 deliver more heat, haze and humidity, with scattered storm coverage, so if you haven't been hit yet, you still have a chance. Once the cooler and drier air gets in next week, we'll have a few days of storm-free skies, before the heat and humidity come back, and we resume "regular" Summer weather.

Strong Thunderstorms Possible Tonight, esp. in North Carolina/Virginia

2011-06-01T11:33:00.000-04:00

A heads up for a possible line of thunderstorms arriving in NC late afternoon and tonight. The models are insisting on the development of a small, but pretty intense line of Thunderstorms, beginning in the Virginia mountains and Foothills this afternoon. This line should sweep due south and even spread Southwest ward toward the Upstate of SC and northeast Georgia by midnight or so. Its too early to say how organized or intense the line will become, but some events that take a track out of the mountains have been strong, with very high winds as the line gains momentum, earlier this season. Keep an eye on the weather forecasts and watch the radars light up later this afternoon and evening to see how this line may (or may not) affect your area.

Nations First Major Heat Wave of Summer Begins Memorial Day...

2011-05-24T16:18:00.002-04:00

Looks like the first major heatwave of Summer should begin Sunday or Monday. It will encompass much of the East, including South, Midwest and MidAtlantic. A strong closed high pressure system will begin over Dixie Sunday and quickly expand north and east toward the Midatlantic States and DC area, with compressional heating. The flow around the high will steer all clouds and organized systems away from the region in a big "circle" or ring of fire fashion, so only the edges have much hope for a cooling late day storm. However, the atmosphere will be loaded with low level moisture, so if any lifting mechanism can get going, and break through the "capping" that the high temps will try to hold onto, then major gully washers can ensue , with drenching downspours. Only a few areas near the Appalachians should expect these, but isolated storms could occur about anywhere. Otherwise, expect heat, haze and humidity to prevail the first half of the week, until the big ridge slides back toward Texas later in the week, which may allow a cooling back door front to drop down into the Eastern States.

Temperatures look to get into the 90's in many areas, possibly getting close to 100 in the Midatlantic of VA and eastern NC at one point as the strong upper high flexes in just the right spot for downslope warming. Heat Index values will be well into the 90's throughout with high humidity.

Unsettled Week For Carolinas and East Coast

2011-05-15T14:20:00.000-04:00

A strong upper low will pinwheel into a good spot for significant rainfall over northeast Georgia and the western Carolinas by Monday night. The models all develop a surface low that becomes stationary over the midlands of SC and piedmont region, slowly wobbling toward the Charlotte region during midday Tuesday. This will spin rainfall and east winds north of the circulation center, right into western North Carolina and the western part of Virginia, meaning heavy, steady rain will occur. The axis of 7H moisture slowly spins for 36 hours roughly, but does ebb and flow as several disturbances migrate around the main circulation over the southern Apps region. The steady rain begins over the extreme northern Upstate of SC after midnight Monday night and expands to encompass most of central and western NC by early Tuesday, pushing west across the mountain chain into eastern TN and eastern KY by midday and afternoon.
Meanwhile, Tuesday afternoon could offer the chance at some isolated pulse storms, any of which can gain enough height to produce major HAIL as the flow comes off the Appalachians and into eastern GA and the central and eastern Carolinas by Tuesday afternoon. Freezing levels will be quite low. Temperatures could remain in the 50's all day in places like Winston Salem, Hickory and Asheville where the clouds remain in full force all day Tuesday, and possibly remaining only in the 40's in the higher elevations like Boone, Galax and Tri-Cities.
The upper low should spin most of the week while weakening each day, but at any time the instability could rise dramatically as strong surface heating occurs in any breaks in the clouds.


cold rain in the mountains and foothills dark colored region, while showers , some with hail if enough sun breaks through, late Tuesday afternoon for central/eastern Carolinas/Ga

Several inches of rain is possible in Parts of the Appalachian chain and western piedmont/foothills region of NC, VA and West Va. up into the central part of Pennsyslvania and NYC area.

Foothills Weather...Very stormy and Very Wet Weekend (and beyond!)

2011-05-11T10:16:00.000-04:00

Stormy Weekend! After the worst Spring in United States history, the hits just keep on coming. A bizarre pattern continues to show up on the maps for the weekend and beyond, one that rarely happens. Two upper lows are forecast to merge, right over the Carolinas. We've already been dealt the most active Spring storm season on record over much of the country, especially in our backyard, and there's no end in sight. Heavy rains will develop Friday and last off and on through the weekend. At any time the skies could open up and pour forth buckets of rain, but the severe part may be more limited this time until later next week when additional energy heads right for us. Then, another outbreak of strong thunderstorms and possible tornadoes will have to be watched. I won't be surprised if 5" to 10" of rain occurs in the next week of parts of Rutherford and Cleveland County, with possible flooding to contend with.Stay safe and alert!

Very Wet Pattern Looms Ahead

2011-05-09T21:37:00.000-04:00

A very wet pattern likely develops late this week and continues into much of next week in the Green Shades.

A quick note while much of the East and Southeast is enjoying tranquil , nice weather. Its all about to come to a screeching halt. A fundamental pattern shift will occur beginning late this week , and will last a while. Blocking in Canada will force a strong upper low to carve out over the Midwest to Appalachian region, bringing in Gulf moisture and high humidity. The strong May sunshine will work on this high dewpoint air to build tall towers of puffy cumulus that grow into tall thunderheads over many areas, on a daily basis. Its been a while since the Southeast has been in this type of pattern, one more reminiscent of early Summertime. Enjoy the sunny, and nice weather now for soon we'll be sweltering in high humidity, and daily afternoon thunderstorms over a large chunk of the eastern US. Some areas just east of the Upper low could end up getting too much rain by the time the next 10 days ends...perhaps over 15" in some counties. Unfortunately, as nature often works in extremes, the southern part of Texas to the Southwest won't be able to buy a drop of rain, as they suffer an intensifying drought and an early heat wave.

Strong Thunderstorms, High Winds, Possible Tornadoes Likely tonight

2011-04-27T12:10:00.000-04:00

If you live anywhere in the western Carolinas, nows the time to prepare for a high wind event and strong thunderstorms that will be arriving tonight. By midnight, the line will be approaching the Spartanburg to Shelby area, and this looks like a near-repeat of what happened in early April, at about the same time of night. High winds are being shown on all the models, with gusts over 50 MPH to be expected. If the strong line of thunderstorms really gets its act together, I won't be suprised to see 75MPH winds rake across the region late tonight and early Thursday morning, toppling trees and tossing a lot of debris around and causing major damage.
The tornado threat is real as well, with so much turning and extreme dynamics. Already this system has been producing high winds and many tornadoes and the event is about to get a "boost" as the final bit of energy comes right down toward Alabama and Tennessee in the next few hours. Its this line that will really explode over the state of Tennessee, much of northern Alabama and northern Georgia later this evening and rake across the western Carolinas toward midnight.

The Dangerous Weather Situation My readers learned about last week is now upon us. Multiple tornadoes likely some areas, and High Winds and strong Thunderstorms will rake the region.

Tornado Outbreak now LIKELY across MidSouth, Appalachians, part of Eastern US

2011-04-24T13:43:00.000-04:00

Keep a close eye to updated weather forecasts this week...its going to turn severe once again. The energy for the new tornado outbreak will come screaming down from the Rockies early Wednesday and spawn a rapidly deepening low near the Ozarks of Arkansas. Jetstream winds will have extra speed and lift of 130mph, then shoot due north later in the day, which will help an explosive diffluent pattern over the TENN Valley by midday. This means the likely area of tornadoes will lie across western to central TN and western KY early Wednesday, then orient more north to south as the strong front begins to bow rapidly as the storm center approaches Ohio and then Detroit by early Thursday. The shear factor is going to be about the highest possible, making the environment turbulent and twisting violently just above the surface. This will allow any strong thunderstorm to surge updrafts strong enough to spawn the funnels. This outbreak looks very similar to the event in early April across the Tenn. Valley and Carolinas and Georgia.


Tornado Outbreak Wednesday April 27 and Thursday 28, 2011

The red shading shows where I think the best chance of twisters will occur. The animation begins early Wednesday and the four frames run through early Thursday morning. I'll be able to nail down the timing and location better as time approaches, but each new run of the computer models looks equally as bad as the previous, and this is a dangerous looking situation for a large chunk of real estate. Anyone ahead of the front (and not shown in the red zone) is still at risk of tornadoes and high winds, hail and strong thunderstorms, so don't assume your area is safe.

Flood Threat High for Ohio River Valley and Corn Belt Regions

2011-04-23T13:33:00.000-04:00

For several days the weather models have been honing in on this region for an excessive rain event. The synoptic factors all point to a relative long term, repeating heavy rain event that may lead to major flooding and rivers to overflow their banks. The Missouri, Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and all the tributaries are at risk during and beyond this period.
In addition, the end of this event should arrive around late Wednesday or Thursday, and culminate with a severe weather outbreak and the possibility of a tornado outbreak that stretches roughly from the lower Midwest to the midSouth and Appalachians, eventually reaching the East Coast by Thursday.

Possibly Historic Flooding Rains Develop April 24 through April 28, 2011

It appears yet another major rain event will follow this one for the same general area. If so, Historic Flooding could result. This combination of repeating rains and another severe weather outbreak looks poised to be a major disruption in the daily lives of millions of people in the Midwest, Ohio and Missouri Valley regions so take precautions now.

Warm, Muggy Weekend...Another Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Next Week

2011-04-22T10:34:00.000-04:00

First up, a strong Bermuda high will develop quickly offshore this weekend, pumping in our first taste of heat and humidity for the Southeast this year. It's very early to be dealing with this kind of heat and humidity, but that's whats in store for Saturday through Monday in the Southeast.


Another Outbreak of Severe weather is likely, spreading late Monday across the Lower-Central Plains, reaching the Carolinas Late Wednesday and early Thursday

By Tuesday, a strong storm system will take the same track many have taken lately, and this once again has all the factors the others did...a strong vortmax, taking on negative tilt as it digs into the MidSouth, scooping up a ton of heat and humidity, high shear value or twisting of the winds with height. So the net result will probably equate to yet another major thunderstorm outbreak and a line of high winds, and no doubt some states will get touchdowns of twisters. Keep up to date on this developing situation.

Big East Coast Rain Storm Saturday

2011-04-13T13:59:00.000-04:00

A tornado outbreak is possible west of the Appalachians on Friday afternoon, and a heavy rain threat exists for the Apps and east to the Coast on Saturday. A strong blocking high will help slow down a front as it approaches the East Coast early Saturday, and the strong surface to 850 mb wind flow will come in off the Atlantic and bank up against the mountain range , from northern Georgia to Pennslyvania, creating the threat for repeating rains and thunderstorms. Some areas could get inundated, especially around the southern Apps in far northeast GA, and the western Carolinas, and again in VA up to Pa. Get set for a soggy Saturday, and possibly a Severe Outbreak west of the Appalachians.

Tornado in Shelby Saturday, April 9 2011

2011-04-11T21:29:00.000-04:00

A weak f0 hit just north of Shelby along and west of highway 18, and just north of the 180 intersection. Fortunately no one was seriously injured. The hook echo was seen early on and my readers were notified via FB quickly to take cover. This part of Cleveland County is no stranger to tornadoes, and in fact upper Cleveland County leads the state of North Carolina in confirmed twisters and radar-indicated tornadoes.

Hail, High Winds, Strong Storms...Active Saturday Evening in Carolinas

2011-04-09T09:52:00.000-04:00

Strong Thunderstorms will erupt over the mountains of Tennessee, Kentucky and western NC and spread across much of the central and western Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening. These storms will have strong updrafts, capable of hail production in many of them, so don't be surprised to see a pelting of hailstones if you're area gets into a strong cell. With a stalled front draped across NC, the strong temperature difference in the northern Piedmont, versus very warm and muggy area on the southern side, will be the diving zone that makes strong storms active and numerous, and some isolated tornadoes are possible near the wedge front. The foothills and mountains look particular dangerous this evening with plenty of dynamics to support an area of organized severe thunderstorms, with high winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. Stay alert.

Possible Tornado Outbreak April 4th-5th in Southeast

2011-03-31T16:17:00.000-04:00

I'm eyeing the development of a severe weather situation that the models are honing in on across the Deep South/ Tennessee Valley, Southeast and possibly lower Ohio Valley early next week. The ingredients are coming together for a classic severe weather outbreak to spread over this region, and I have zero doubt there will be twisters on the ground, but we can't draw the exact lines yet. Anywhere in the red shaded zone is my overall target and I'll fine tune later as we can narrow down the region.
The ample, unusually deep inflow off the Gulf will surge very warm dewpoints and moisture north toward a quickly developing low , and the one inhibiting ingredient which spares the Carolinas of these types of outbreaks, will be missing this time: stable low level cold air. In other words, the cool air will be totally gone, replaced entirely throughout the southern and eastern third of the nation with extremely warm and buoyant air. The trough doing the dirty work will be undergoing negative tilt as it swings toward the Southeast, and since it is a full latitude trough to begin with, and the fact that the models all develop a very strong low level jet and shearing winds with height right off the surface, mother nature's way to respond to all of this energy is to let loose with a line of twisters. This event could become a well known text book case of a severe outbreak, so stay on guard early next week

Tired of the Rain Yet? Don't Be....More On the Way this Week

2011-03-28T15:46:00.000-04:00

Clouds stretch across most of the Southeast on Monday, March 28, after some snow and sleet pelted northern NC and Va.

A parade of storms will continue to march across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast, but probably no more snow outside of the mountains this time. Another good rainstorm arrives Wednesday in Georgia and the Carolinas, and again might have thunder with it, esp. in eastern Tenn and GA. Then by Friday, the final , much stronger system comes diving down through the Plains and picks up Gulf Moisture. Its track is not certain, but it may have more Mountain Snow sometime on Friday, and showers and thunderstorms for the rest of us, followed by a nice, sunny, but chilly weekend, to bring in April. And thats no Joke.

Rain To Wash Away the Pollen (temporarily atleast)

2011-03-22T16:04:00.000-04:00

Starting this weekend, a classic, raw, damp cool spell is coming to the Carolinas. Further west on the other side of the Appalachians, a bout of severe weather is possible. A strong vortex in Canada will squash systems further south than usual, and a prolonged wet period is looking likely across the Southeast. It will take until atleast next Tuesday before the system exits the eastern Seaboard, and by then, a lot of the Southern States will have been drenched pretty good. In fact, I won't be surprised to see some flooding in some areas esp. around southern Tennessee , Alabama and Georgia to possibly the NC mountains, by the time its all over.

Flooding Rains, Severe storms, Hail, High Wind, Mountain Snow On the Way

2011-03-08T18:20:00.000-05:00

March is in full force. Every few years we get a storm like this. A strong trough will dig into the Southeast states the next two days, and deliver a powerful punch of dynamics across Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and the Carolinas, before moving up the East Coast. This time,a couple of unique factors are added. The storm may cut off in the upper levels, and in addition just before the process is complete, a really rare set of circumstances are pointing to a quick, super-rain event in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas, near the spine of the Appalachians and Interstate 85 corridor. As the surface low is gearing up in Atlanta, the incoming energy in the lower Mississippi Valley will feed extreme divergence aloft and help to stall the initial rain bands over the western parts of the Carolinas and into Georgia. Normally rain systems move on eastward without much hesitation but if the models are right, the Atlanta Athens Spartanburg to Charlotte and Greensboro corridor are in for a period of perhaps extreme rainfall rates. This comes at a time right after a major rain event, so the fundamental rule for flood river forecasting is intensity, and most models are pointing toward an 6 hour period of some intense rain bands over this general area.

About early Thursday, the surface low under the negative tilt trough will form a triple point low, similar to the last event , near Greenville Spartanburg and that low will work toward central NC, and could be the catalalyst for a severe outbreak for the central and eastern Carolinas Thursday. On the backside, as the low closes off aloft, cold air will work in and rapidly change rain to snow in Asheville, Knoxville and the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina and Kentucky and possibly even some flurries or snow showers into extreme Northern Alabama and Georgia. Accumulating snows are possible if the upper low is strong, for the Appalachians on Thursday into early Friday, but right now we're not sure exactly how the upper low will evolve exactly and that will make the difference on who gets how much snow. The heavy rains are a given though. Drive safe.

Looks like a Washout his Weekend for the Southeast...

2011-03-03T13:48:00.000-05:00

model forecast amounts of 1 to 4" of rain in the Southeast and East Coast

The models all have a slow moving trough and front that will crawl across the Deep South and East Coast this weekend. The rains begin in western NC by around midday Saturday in earnest (light rain and drizzle begins Friday). By Saturday night and early Sunday, most of the Southeast, and especially around the northern half of Georgia, eastern Tennesssee and the western half of the Carolinas, will be in a solid shield of much needed rain. The rain totals could surpass 4" in parts of the mountains around Cullowee, Murphy, Lake Toxaway down into the mountains of Georgia and near the SC border around Oconee County, as strong southeast winds work in tandem with a surface low parked right over Clemson, SC. This will funnel extra lift into the higher terrain of the Southern Apps, so eventually a little flooding would be possible, however the duration won't last and the storm will pull out later Sunday. Enough cold air may wrap into the system over the higher elevations of TN/NC for a quick change to wet snow, but it shouldn't add up to much. We all turn briefly colder, then warm back up next week somewhat. The much needed rains come at a time when we're already well below normal since the Fall of last year, and we could use it to help the rapidly growing/rebirth of all the greenery that Spring time brings. Unfortunately, its mostly a wash out of a weekend...bad timing. Grab a DVD and listen to the drops...

A little snow overnight

2011-02-09T16:38:00.000-05:00

At this point, this is a tricky one. Most models have a snow shadow on this side of the mountains, placing Shelby squarely in the middle of little to almost no snow. In a nutshell, this is an unusual setup, so its hard to say. Its not the classic Gulf low bringing in moisture over our cold air, instead its an upper disturbance that will be lifting to our north, and transferring energy to the Carolina coast overnight and early Thursday morning. However, all the models have been blowing the actual weather observations to our west, and already I'm seeing signs that Shelby will indeed get some snow, but its literally impossible to say how much . At one point I thought flurries was probably the best we could pull out, but looking at the latest trends, I'm re thinking that. I'm NOT calling for a big deal though, like areas of Arkansas where 10 to 20" of snow fell. Simply put, if the moisture holds up for 8 more hours like I think it will, we'll get atleast a period of light snow, but there's always the chance the moisture will literally vanish and dry up totally right at Cleveland County's doorstep. Just don't know. On the flip side, there's a really outside chance that a lee trough could enhance the effects of snow banding during the overnight hours, and quite a surprise would result from that, but thats an extremely unlikely outcome, I only mention it because a couple of models show something similar to that happening, and its actually happened just once before that I can recall in a similar setup.

For now, I'm expecting light snow to arrive near midnight in the Shelby area. Give or take a couple of hours, and of course with our proximity to the mountain chain and the way the precip is coming at us, it makes it hard to nail down a time before the Virga begins reaching the ground. The snow could continue for about 4 to 6 hours and then be done around daybreak or so. The afternoon should feature sunny skies. Total accumulations could range anywhere from a dusting to an inch.

Snow? Not Much, Flurries Possible

2011-02-08T06:02:00.000-05:00

The trends for the Shelby area of NC are for little to nothing from this "storm". Its not a good setup for moisture , however we do have the cold air. Its similar to Clippers , where moisture comes east toward the Mountain Chain, then a hole opens up in the downwind /Leeside areas around interstate 85 from GSP to CLT regions, then the precip attempts to fill in again as it heads toward the coastal Plain. All models now have this look, and unless they are missing the strength of the system, I wouldn't expect much around this part of the Carolinas. However, big snows are coming for Arkansas, Mississippi, and Oklahoma over the next 36 hours, before the system begins weakening rapidly as its dynamics really fade fast approaching our area. Its possible some spots around the foothills and western Carolinas wring out a few flakes overnight Wednesday Night and early Thursday morning, but don't expect to be stranded or snowed-in like previous storms...this one just doesn't have much going for it. Bad timing with the upper level features, bad orientation, there's no gulf moisture tap, weak moisture advection...on and on. Its looking like a rare case where it snows to our west, north, east and south...but not much here.

All models have a "hole" over our area, indicative of lack of precip. Snow all around this area is possible.

The good news is a warm up is slated for next week. The pattern is changing and this Historic Cold Winter, one of the Coldest on record, (not to mention a very snowy one in the Southeast) is coming to an end soon. However as we enter late February and early March, there are signs that some Greenland Blocking will build again...this is the same paradigm that led to our early Winter cold and snow, and if it does form, then late Feb and early March could turn cold and stormy one more time before Winter finally lets go. We'll see!

Another Major Winter Storm Looks Possible for Some, Likely For Others...

2011-02-05T14:36:00.000-05:00

Yet another snowstorm is coming to Oklahoma, Kansas and Arkansas, and possibly further east and south. By next week, a new strong disturbance will be dropping into the Rockies , meanwhile Cold Arctic air will be spilling into the Country, all the way down to the Interstate 20 corridor in the Deep South, in the Wake of a powerful storm exiting the East Coast.
Here's where the forecast gets interesting. By Tuesday, the Rockies storm is forecast by all models to begin spreading into Oklahoma, Kansas and near the Red River. With very cold air in place, heavy snow is likely to set up an axis along an inverted trough near OKC to Tulsa, and a Gulf Low will begin to develop. The snow shield will begin to spread slowly toward the Tennessee Valley late Tuesday and from here we have differing opinions. The most reliable models, namely the European version, has consistently taken this storm across the Deep South, with another Major Winter Storm in many areas of the Deep south north of I-20. This may include Atlanta. Other models lift the storm just north, which would mean rain for the Deep South and into the Carolinas, still other models are very weak, but much colder which would give light snow across the South. At this point, I'll keep options open to any of these. At any rate, if the European is close to verifying, this will be a major if not catastrophic Winter storm in Georgia and the Carolinas especially, with that model showing strong cold air damming, and areas that change from snow to ice would be hit hard. Its impossible to nail down the rain /snow/ice line just yet, until we get a concensus on the exact track. All this begins overnight for the Carolinas...roughly speaking and lasts well into Thursday. The timing could change though. The good news for those weary of cold and Wintry weather..Almost all models have the cold coming in after the storm lasting only a day or two, then we really begin to see a Spring Thaw! Which would melt the snow quickly. Stay tuned!

Possible Storm Track

The Map is just a rough idea now...not to be construed exactly verbatim.

Soaker On the Way

2011-02-02T23:00:00.000-05:00

Enjoy Thursday, because Friday and Saturday are a total washout. The Gulf of Mexico will open wider than it has since last Winter, and begin dumping a vast rainstorm on the Southeast, with hardly any breaks. The temperatures may be just cold enough early Friday to allow a little sleet or even snow at the very start, but it won't last. All precip will turn to plain rain, and a cold rain for the duration of Friday and Friday night. After this storm exits, next week turns cold. Very cold. Winter is coming back hard, and we're now watching some developments to go along withe the cold air, but as of now, its just long range speculation. Once we have some degree of confidence, I'll sling around the "snow" word but we can't say that yet for the Southeast. But rest assured, going into mid February looks bone chilling cold at the very least. The jetstream will align into a western ridge and central to eastern trough, and in February, with all that cold air in Canada, its coming down straight into the Southland.

Where Will the Snow Be this Week?

2011-01-23T19:40:00.000-05:00

The big question now is what is going to happen? Before we get to that, here are some tidbits on this Winter so far: The Meteorological Winter begins December 1st and ends Feb. 28. So basically in the Southeast, there are 3 months we watch for cold, and snow and ice chances, and already the last 7 Weeks have delivered. Its been a top 5 coldest Winter so far for many Southeast Cities officially, and for a few, the snow and ice amounts make it close to a top 5 year, primarily in coastal Carolinas, and parts of Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina.
Coming up is NO END IN SIGHT for the cold air for us. We can see pretty clearly the writing on the wall, we're going to stay cold and get colder over the next 10 days to 2 weeks, so by then we're into February, and the long range shows the strong Ridging out west remaining, so you can infer the cold (or atleast no above normal) air should still be ongoing through mid February. That only leaves 2 weeks for us to have potential "above normal" temperatures. All this to say, the Winter Outlooks many of us issued in October and November are a failure. They went warm and dry. However, the dry part is fairly accurate (so far). Even though it has seemed wet, its not. We are pretty dry in the Carolinas.

Since Dec 1st
GSP 2.85"
CLT 2.71"
AVL 2.56"

RDU 3.22"
FAY 2.15"
GSO 2.87"

AHN 4.22"
ATL 3.49"

However, a strong Gulf low is about to form and should throw some decent rainfall up into the Southeast starting Monday night and especially by Tuesday. After the upper low has made a complete cutoff over lower Alabama, then the moisture shield should really explode over Georgia and the Carolinas overnight Tuesday. By then, colder air working into the Tennessee Valley and cold air being generated from the low Height Field should allow the rain to begin changing to wet snow in the northwest shield of the storm over Tennessee, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and extreme northern Georgia. The models are still varying on the track once it comes out of Georgia. Some take it up the Appalachian Chain, which would place the NC and TN mountains in more rain, others take it to the coast which opens the door to allowing the 5H feature and 850 low to pinwheel in a very similar fashion as the March 2009 storm...right up 85. However, this storm isn't nearly as cold aloft, so I'm not calling for snow in the lower elevations east of the NC mountains. But areas from the Mountains and west, I feel pretty safe that it will happen. Its too early to start talking amounts yet, until we nail down a precise track, and if and when the rain may change to snow in the Carolinas east of the mountains on Wednesday. At some point Wednesday, we *could* see a switch to heavy, wet snow, or it could remain just a cold rain. Too tough and too close to call for certain. Upper level lows are sneaky and alwyas have tricks up their sleeves. I'll fine tune the map later.

Bomb or Bust

2011-01-22T01:40:00.000-05:00

UKMET at 72 hours valid Monday Evening

The models are in 2 camps: one, there is a weak storm but no big deal. The GFS and other poor models are in that camp. The vast majority of the models, the ones that have correctly called our Winter Storms so far this year, (and last year, and the year before, and the year before, ...) like the GGEM, ECMWF and UKMET are on board for a big storm arriving in the Western Carolinas staring around Tuesday morning. The cold air at the surface and aloft will be here to start the storm, but there is a question on how much warming takes place during Tuesday afternoon and overnight Tuesday night. We'll need more time to figure it out, but I'm leaning toward a large, heavy wet snowfall in northern Georgia, and most of the western Carolinas and southern Virginia and much of eastern Tennessee, as well as northern Alabama. I'll continue to monitor the track and trends of the models and this storm over the weekend with updates. As always with our storms, we practically have to wait until it begins to know for certain how it will play out, but I try my best to give a good early warning, and right now the setup favors a Major Winter Storm in Charlotte and points west....an "Interstate 85 Special"

More Snow and Ice Looking Likely Next Week

2011-01-20T16:51:00.000-05:00

The Warm Winter Outlooks issued in October and November are going to fail miserably, including mine. Almost all professional forecasters went with a typical La Nina outlook, which is warm and dry for the South and East, yet we're anything but. Just one more snow and ice event across the Deep South will probably throw this Winter into record territory both in terms of actual snow amounts and also the Cold Air. Already, since December 1st, many cities have reached a top 5 Category on the cold wave, and there's no end in sight.The rest of the month looks very cold, perhaps extreme cold, with hardly a day at normal temperatures anywhere in the Southeast.
Next up, another Texas storm is forecast to approach the Southeast by later Monday and overspread light snow and sleet across the Deep South and Tennessee Valley. Its way too early to think about amounts now, but I'll continue to update as time gets closer. There's still many unknowns, as usual, with the details, but it does look pretty likely for some more accumulating snow and ice from near Dallas to Memphis Birmingham Atlanta Nashville and much of the Carolinas region. Some areas further south will transition to ice and maybe cold rain, while areas sandwhiched between I-20 and closer to I-40 and maybe east of I-85 will be in all 3 types of precip at some point, but we'll nail down specifics later. This is just an early alert...don't buy bread or milk yet!

Is More Snow and Ice on the Way ?

2011-01-16T08:34:00.000-05:00

So far, the first half of Winter (meteorlogicall speaking, begins Dec. 1st) has been a top 5 coldest on record in most of the interior Southeast for several reasons. Although the official Winter Outlooks were for warm and dry in general, we're cold and snowy (still "dry" meaning below average precip--but only because of the powdery snows). It looks like no big change from the overall cold anytime soon. In fact, the coldest air so far is covering Canada now and will begin expanding southward soon. This week offers a weak threat for some snow or ice, probably more ice, but the light variety, around western NC, especially near I-40 from Asheville to Hickory and points north.

the ECMWF model above valid at days 5 and 6.

Once this storm is out of the way, our eyes quickly turn to the Southwest, where the European model drops another storm and begins to bring it toward the Southest by later in the week. With cold, arctic high pressure all to our north, and pressing down, this will be trouble again. We still can't be sure yet if the storm will "shear" out or actually strengthen as it comes our way, but beginning sometime on late Thursday or into Friday, or generally speaking, the Thursday- Saturday timeframe could get snowy or icy, or BOTH, depending on where you are in Tennessee, the Carolinas, Alabama and Georgia. The overall setup depicted lately on the European model is a wintry one, with a healthy ice storm, perhaps a major one, but we need more time to get a better idea of who gets what. Following the storm, theres little doubt we get extremely cold again, as if it hasn't been cold enough. There's also several more systems lined up beyond this one. This is turning out to be a Winter of the Ages in part of the Southeast.

Another Super Arctic Outbreak Arriving in Carolinas

2011-01-11T11:53:00.000-05:00

Already this season has had several days below freezing in Shelby and surrounding region, and this with plenty of sunshine and no snowpack at all. Now we have a strong Arctic High Pressure coming right at us, and with help from the latest Blizzard soon to be pelting the Northeast Coast, once again, our temperatures will be plummeting rapidly. Starting late tonight.
The mountains of TN/NC will cash in on another foot of snowfall with excellent upslope and added energy aloft,so if you're planning on heading up to Asheville or Boone, cancel now. Also, our winds in the Piedmont on Wednesday could be gusty enough to cause some tree limbs to come down. Even though sunshine will help begin the melting process, our actual high temperatures in Greenville-Shelby-Charlotte region will barely only get to 30 or 31 degrees, for HIGH temperatures. Yet again, another string of very cold days, and 2 consecutive days of sub-freezing high temperatures in this region, which is extremely impressive.

As for low temperatures, I'm forecasting the Shelby airport to hit 5 degrees or less on Friday morning.

All of us will likely head into the single digits across Cleveland County and I think with snowpack, the position of the Arctic High over the Northeast Tennesssee Mountains and southern Appalachian region argues for a record buster in the western Piedmont, where winds die down to calm. With snow pack, Charlotte to Shelby to Spartanburg could get extremely close to zero if the winds die down completely and excellent radiating conditions setup.


Forecast Surface Pressures On Friday Morning Jan 14 2011

The next storm arrives here sometime after Saturday and its too early to say how that works out yet. I'll watch it.

Final Full Update on Impending Winter Storm

2011-01-09T14:49:00.000-05:00

It's coming, like it or not. In geographic coverage and actual impact, this upcoming storm could be the most substantial Winter Storm since the 1996 storm, and for some areas of the mid and deep South, surpass that. The snow should overspread the South from the southwest to northeast from this point on, and reach the western Carolinas between 1 and 4 AM. All the short range models have caught on to a strengthening trend the moisture flux and rates, and with cold air sitting so unusually far south, thanks to a blocking pattern in existence over a month now, the precip will take the form of snow and ice depending on location.
The heaviest snow bands should occur under the broad but strong lift over the Tennessee Valley, possibly northern Mississippi/Memphis areas, and again along the Smokies and eastern ridges of the Southern Appalachians. Aloft, the snow will be changing to sleet and then freezing rain, from south to north, but once into the western Carolinas and most of Tennessee, the depth of the tenacious cold air could be deep enough to hold on to snow for most of the storm. Places in and around Atlanta will have several hours of snow before the changeover to mix and the northern suburbs will fight back and forth between all snow and sleet for a while, depending on the exact placement of the incoming warm air aloft. Further northeast into the Western Carolinas and extreme northeast Georgia, the southeasterly flow at 850 throughout the event actually helps to keep the column cold for most of the event through diabatic cooling and upslope. The cold air during the first half of the storm there should enhance snow ratios, with the 850 dropping to -6 for the first half of the event.
All the models have come markedly north in the last few runs but the trend is to strengthen the moisture flux and dynamics aloft associated with the decaying upper feature. As the surface low begins to redevelop off the coast of Georgia, this will keep moist low level air and pockets of some sleet, but mostly freezing drizzle for several hours after the heart of the storm. It remains to be seen exactly how far north the coastal gets before it gets energized by the incoming trailing channelled vort across the upper Tennessee Valley by Tuesday, but indications are its going to be a close call for a strong Nor'easter Development that would impact the East Coast with another major Winter storm.

Following the storm, the Southeast turns bitter cold. With snowpack on the ground and a 1040mb arctic high settling in for the duration of the week, look for record or near record cold temps across the South, with some areas approaching zero, even outside the mountains.

Local Forecast for the Western Carolinas and Northeast Georgia:
Snow developing overnight and becoming heavy around daybreak from Charlotte, west. Highs mid 20's.
Monday Night...snow changing to sleet and freezing rain and freezing drizzle most locations. Temperatures holding steady in the 20's.

*Chaos Factor
Every storm has its own areas of unknown, like high snow rates, convection, localized terrain enhancement, meso scale banding, dry slotting, earlier mixing and change-over, and deviations that a forecaster can't exactly account for on the smoothed over genral map. Mine won't be any different and should be used for general purposes only. Some areas won't get what I'm predicting, and other areas will exceed my map totals.

Winter Storm Update Saturday Jan 8

2011-01-08T16:43:00.000-05:00

The latest trends continue to be stronger with the upper low coming into Texas early Sunday. One of the reasons for the uncertainty in amounts is the degree of decay of the upper low, and as it turns out, like 3 of our previous big upper lows this Winter, the RUC model continues to maintaining the strengthening all the way into Texas and all short range models today have caught on to this idea, yet still decay the strong Vort as gets drawn northeastward across the Deep South Sunday night and Monday. The SREF model continues to inch the higher amounts northward each run, and looking at Satellite, its obvious the Northeast system will be pulling out and the southern system is going to close off again. Like most systems so far this Winter, the models are underforecasting the precip amounts and the omega west of the Appalachians. It now appears Tennessee will get fully into Snowfall underneath the right entrence of the divergence and tremendous southern 5H advection ahead of the slowly decaying and spreading vort. This will allow an area of 2 maximums in precip, one along the gulf coast associated with the weak Gulf low, and another along the path of the PVA crossing the Mid South, which likely will be very strong until atleast the central Carolinas, when it is fully absorbed into the (by then) Georgia developing coastal. The Carolina coastal off HAT could intensify rapidly with the ushering trailing vort, but where it occurs exactly will make a big difference on throwback snowfall in eastern NC and then up the East Coast by early Tuesday. Its too early to say if the storm turns into a major Midatlantic and Northeast snowstorm.
One question mark regarding dynamic cooling for northeast Texas and northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas, the Arklatex region. The strength of the vort there may overcome marginal temps, and combined with strong lift and dynamics, a suprise heavy snowfall could occur in and around Dallas Fort Worth or somewhere east northeast toward the Arklatex. I expect enough lift and high snow ratios early on to deliver a large 6" snowfall in parts of northern Mississippi and around southwest Tennessee, and again in and around northern Georgia or the Southern Appalachian region where very cold air will reside for the bulk of the lift and moisture. There's still question how much snow falls into the piedmont of NC but all models have been upping the amounts there, yet still have a relative minimum north of Charlotte, however that may be an error due to the models not recognizing the strength of the fading 5H system that still will be strong and has weak shortwave ridging across an open omega field. In fact, with northeast and easterly flow from the surface to 950, and southeasterly flow at 850 for the duration, some foothills enhancement could show up in meso banding around the Upstate of South Carolina and western NC between Charlotte Hickory and Anderson. Unfortunately, we can only predict that type of occurrence when its imminent.
After the snow ends for northeastern GA and much of the interior of the Carolinas, residual moisture will be wrung out in the form of freezing drizzle for a 6 hour duration or even longer. The snow pack should be crusted over with a glaze over a very large region of Piedmont between Atlanta and Raleigh. For the eastern Carolinas, the timing of good moisture and the retreating cold air aloft make it a race as to how much snow occurs before the changeover, and all models are still close to call with the complicated southern stream possibly being reinforced late Monday night or early Tuesday, and incoming colder air aloft. If the Upper low holds stronger as I suspect, the snow will streak further east than I have shown and cover much of NC in snow, but its too uncertain to forecast how much with any certainty further east toward the Coastal Plain. Sleet could actually be a bigger accumulator than snow the further east yet get in the Carolinas because of the loss of low 850 temps and a possible resurgance of lift and moisture. Further south into central Georgia and east Central Alabama to central South Carolina, a significant and in some cases, major, Ice storm could evolve.

Local Forecast: For the Upstate , Western NC,and northeast GA:

Snow spreading into northeast Georgia late Sunday evening around midnight and overspreading the western Carolinas by daybreak Monday. Temperatures holding in the 20's Monday and the snow changes to sleet briefly then freezing drizzle very late.

Southeast Winter STorm....Updated Friday Afternoon

2011-01-07T16:50:00.000-05:00

All guidance still have the big Winter storm for the Southeast, stretching from central Texas to the Carolinas. I'm not making a call anytime soon on amounts in the Carolinas, but I do feel safe to say this will be a big event for the Deep South, in terms of Heavy Snow and for some sections a severe Icestorm. The Upper Low responsible for our storm is still swirling off the California coast, and once it comes inland, it will get sampled much better, and allow the forecaster to make a much more exact track, but as it stands now, most models agree on the basic track from the western Gulf to the offshore region of Florida or Georgia coast, and with plenty of cold air aloft and the surface, this means a stripe of snow and ice, but we can't say exactly how much yet.
By Sunday afternoon, the moisture will be rapidly expanding in Texas, southern Arkansas, all of Louisiana, and the southern half of Mississippi, and by night it should be arriving in most of Arkansas, southern and western Tennessee, and most of Alabama, and getting very close to Atlanta. The snow will rule for places along Interstate 20 to start, including Atlanta and Birmingham, and by then heavy snow will have accumulated underneath the Upper low and strong dynamics over northwest Mississippi (just northwest of Jackson) to around the Louisiana and Arkansas border and much of the southern half of Arkansas. Some areas near southern Arkansas could get a very large snowfall from this system due to enhanced dynamics and dynamic cooling, as well as some localized areas in northern and central Texas, maybe including Dallas-Ft Worth.
After midnight, the snow will be overspreading most of the southeast bound by I-20 and I-40, west of the Carolinas, and heavy snow under excellent dynamics will probably occur in southern Tennessee south of I-40 and around the northern third of Alabama, and from Atlanta, northward toward Athens and Gainesville and the mtns of Georgia. By Monday morning, most models have the moisture heading into the western Carolinas with lighter amounts as you head northward into northern NC, and much heavier amounts toward western South Carolina.
Monday is shaping up to be a snowy day in the western Carolinas, but theres going to be some mix and ice coming into the Upstate from the south, where places like Macon and just south of Athens probably change to a potentially dangerous Ice Storm. An area near I-20 stretching from Mississippi to Georgia could get a severe ice storm, with a band of sleet, and a band of freezing rain, since surface temperatures are forecast to be well below freezing, and the upper levels have warmed enough to change the precip from snow to freezing rain or sleet.

Liquid Equivalent Precipitation Through 12Z Monday Jan10, 2011

Some models paint about a foot of snow along Interstate 85, and other models have only 2 to 4" and yet others have around a 6" snowfall in general for the western Carolinas from Spartanburg to Hickory to Shelby and Charlotte, but again we need more time to better sample the data as it comes in tonight and Saturday. There is little doubt though that this will be a very widespread, significant Winter Storm, and the potential is for it to be a severe Winter storm for some areas. Check back Saturday for another full update.

Another Southeast Snowstorm On the Way....

2011-01-06T14:31:00.000-05:00

All models agree, and even though its too early for amounts, there are going to be some big totals somewhere in the white band I have drawn. Its unusual to have this much model agreement so far out, but it does fit the pattern of this blocking pattern. There's been strong blocking in Canada and now we have it in Alaska, and last week at this time when I was seeing it show up, I knew from past experience that when it occurs, usually we have something happen in the Southeast.
By Sunday morning a strong upper low is going to get booted slowly east and form a low in the western Gulf of Mexico. This will spread moisture into Eastern Texas and the southern half of Arkansas quickly. There will be a high pressure to our north and west, ensuring deep cold air on northeast winds, so our temperatures aren't going anywhere once the precipitation begins, even for areas well South, this is a little unusual to be so cold, so far south. In fact, North Carolina is going to be frigid all weekend, beginning Friday afternoon (don't be surprised at flurries even in Shelby on Friday afternoon or night). This deep, arctic air will be fully entrenched well down to the I-20 corridor in Georgia and Alabama all the way across northern Louisiana, as the moisture really begins to explode and expand eastward later Sunday.
By Sunday night, snow should be falling heavily in places like Tupelo, Little Rock, Birmingham and Huntsville and closing in on Atlanta by dark. Its hard to say how far north into Tennessee this gets , but it looks like the southern 2/3 will get some snow, roughly south of I-40 for the heaviest amounts.
The snow may arrive in western SC and western NC after midnight Sunday night, but at this time range, its hard to pinpoint the hour , it may arrive earlier or even wait until Monday morning, but its coming.

By Monday morning Atlanta and points north around Athens to Asheville should be in the throws of an unusually strong Winter Storm, and the southern sections for Atlanta for example may warm aloft just enough to switch the snow to sleet or freezing rain. Its hard to draw the ice lines now, but some sections very near I-20 are going to get a wallop of sleet and ice, and some areas will go through all 3 phases of precip, snow to ice to liquid. Its a messy setup for those areas, but further north around the Upstate of SC to most all of NC, the snow will rule, not ice. We'll talk accumulations later on.

Widespread Winter Storm Likely for South/Deep South/Southeast/Tenn. Valley

2011-01-06T06:43:00.000-05:00

All models agree on the fact there's going to be very cold air in place ahead of the Sunday/Monday storm, the only question is timing. Looking back at my maps from the storms with a similar setup, the January 13 1982 storm comes to mind with this one. By Sunday morning , a strong upper low is in Texas with a surface low being spawned in the offshore waters of Houston. Snow will break out quickly across most of Arkansas, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. By Sunday afternoon, the snow will be knocking on the door for Atlanta and the western Carolinas by nightfall.
The track of the low is going to be crucial for who remains snow and who goes over to sleet and freezing rain, but at this point it looks like all snow for all of Tennessee, and North Carolina, with mostly snow in the Upstate of SC, northern GA (Atlanta may go over to ice), northern GA, northern Alabama and northern Mississippi.

The amounts of moisture usually with a track like this should be very substantial, and honestly this is how the Shelby area has got its big snows in the past.
Following the storm, once again, very cold arctic air pours in. I'll begin working on maps this afternoon. This is just a heads up that a major snowstorm (and icestorm for some) is on the way to much of the Carolinas, Tennessee, and the northern half of the Gulf states...One of the biggest, most widespread snow and icestorms since the 1980's.

A little snow tonight.....Then Watching Sunday and Monday

2011-01-05T10:44:00.000-05:00

A rapidly developing area of moisture is approaching and the latest short range models have Cleveland County getting into precipitation this afternoon late, lasting most of the night. I still don't know how heavy the precip becomes, and this will be the deciding factor on what type it takes. Our temperatures aloft where the snow is created is right at the threshold level, meaning snow will fall, but it could melt before reaching the ground. This could be a situation where the upper parts Rutherford to Cleveand county get snow, and areas around Forest City to Shelby over to Charlotte get rain for the bulk of it, but I think almost everyone goes over to "some" snow before it all ends. I'll keep watching short term trends, for example the cloud cover and surface temps, radar trends, etc, as any small change will make the difference. Either way though, this system will not be the big one, or have the potential the Sunday one has.
I'll update more on the Sunday snowfall potential later this afternoon when other guidance comes in. At this point, I'm favoring a big snowfall stretching across the Deep South, spreading toward the Carolinas by Sunday afternoon, with temperatures plenty cold for all snow. The biggest question is how far north the moisture gets, and this could still slide south of our area.

More Winter Weather Possible Soon

2011-01-04T18:48:00.000-05:00

No maps yet, but confidence is building on the Sunday snowstorm for Shelby, Upstate South Carolina, North Georgia and Much of Tennessee. This is a good looking setup for our area but there's still several issues to resolve. In short, a strong upper low will cruise across Texas Saturday and develop a low pressure in southern Mississippi, with snow on its north side. By Sunday, the models had been weakening this storm as it approaches the Carolinas, but the latest trend is for it to remain in tact , and spread a good wide swath of snow and ice across the Upper Southeast, reaching Shelby sometime on Sunday. If the storm heads further north, we'll turn from snow to ice, but if it heads further south, we'll barely even get grazed, so stay tuned. As it stands now, the track is a good one for us for a mostly - snow situation.
Also, tomorrow afternoon and night there will be some light moisture approaching us , which may give a little light snow to parts of the area. Areas north of highway 74 have the best shot at being cold enough for snow, and areas south of the highway are a close call, could be rain or snow, depending on how heavy the precip is. If its heavy enough, most everyone will probably have a period of light snow, but right now it all looks pretty light, and not much accumulations. I'll monitor it early Wednesday and see if it turns into something more substantial. Beyond next Sunday's storm, the whole Continent goes into the deep freeze, save Florida. The longwave axis is forecast to be in a good spot for Gulf Storm development to boot, so this may be quite a January to remember....the possibility is there for this to be a record cold and snowy month. The cold air is coming in for certain, but placing the storms will be a challenge until we get closer to the event.
Check back Wednesday for updates.

Extreme Possibilities Looming Ahead For the Southeast and East Coast

2011-01-03T01:59:00.000-05:00

I'm pretty sure we'll end up telling our grandkids about this nutty weather pattern one day. After a brief break following our Christmas snowstorm, we're quickly casting our eyes to the upper level maps again. And they are shouting history making once again. For a few days now, the Ensembles, the operational models, the analogs, every conceivable piece of data the weatherman can look it is showing an unprecendentend pattern taking shape for Tennessee, the Carolinas, northern Georgia, Alabama all the way to Arkansas.

We just passed a record setting cold and snowy December in part of the Southeast, with strong record setting blocking showing up in Canada and Greenland. Now the blocking is shifting to Alaska, and will work in tandem with residual blocking in Canada, and its arriving at the coldest time of Winter anyway, so with Dual blocking signatures showing up, and the indicies both NAO and AO in record low territory, this is going to get interesting. Even with one strong block, the Carolinas usually do well with Winter storms, as they are infrequent apparitions, but to have 2 of them, simultaneously and in record strong strength, with this pattern the sky is the limit, literally. I'm not sure what will evolve, but the models are already painting another snowstorm cutting across part of the Deep South starting Sunday, January 9th. This could be followed by the coldest air yet. A very cold and strong series of Arctic highs is poised to drop down and cover the nation, with more undercutting jetstream energy coming at us in a very displaced fashion. We're embarking in rare, unprecendented territory here. Stay tuned!

Light Snow Should continue, but nothing like I thought

2010-12-25T21:21:00.000-05:00

Looks like I busted bad on this one folks. Cleveland County started off too warm today, except the upper sections and toward Rutherford County. Radar trends tonight don't show much happening other than pockets of light snow coming up from South Carolina. The "holes" in the radar have worked their magic it appears to steal yet another potential big precipitation event, this time it was snow. Geeesh, can't catch a break, especially south of US 74.
But its snowing on Christmas, so technically this could be considered a White Christmas, even if we don't make the 1 inch mark. Its going to be a race for areas south of Shelby to reach that with only a couple hours left. Still, what a fun storm to follow. Congratulations on those that got good snowfall today!

Heavy Snow Rates Likely Tonight all over Western North Carolina

2010-12-25T12:46:00.000-05:00

General Discussion:

For the Cleveland County region and immediate surrounding counties, especially into the foothills, the snow rates tonight look pretty impressive for a while. They may get to 1" per hour at times between Spartanburg, Shelby Hickory and Forest City, and even Charlotte, and as far west as Asheville. The low will be deepening while still in the northern Gulf and crossing Florida, and throwing plentiful moisture across Alabama, Georgia and the western half of the Carolinas for a while. Once it gets started this afternoon, the snow is going to really start coming down and the surface temperatures should bottom out near 32 or so. Accumulations can be anywhere from 3" to as much as 10" if you're closer to Asheville and Hickory where the snow got an early start. It should snow all night and end sometime Sunday morning.

Technical Discussion:

The RUC continues to come in each run with more moisture and better dynamics. By 5 pm or so, the southern vort in the deep south is converted into PVA and cyclonic flow aimed at north GA and the western Carolinas should cause an expansion of heavy snow rates. After dark the development of weak 850 low looks likely underneath good divergence in the lee of the Apps, where stationary banding and mesoscale forcing under cyclonic 850 flow against the foothills should enhance snow rates to some areas seeing 1" per hour rates at times. The comma head is tilting the whole time as the coastal low begins taking shape and by morning whats leftover in the western Carolinas will by dying a slow death. All in all, the area may be the last to end the snow shower activity, but should come to an end starting in the morning. Its impossible to say where the most snow accumulations will be, but widespread accumulations overnight under the region bound by GSP AHN CLT AVL HKY regions looks like 4 to 8" except possibly more along 40 and in the mountains, especially in the central NC mountains near Bumcombe and western Rutherford. Some areas could top 12".

White Christmas on the Way - - This could be a Big one.

2010-12-25T00:22:00.001-05:00

The Short of it: All models trended back to a look similar to the European Model of earlier in the week. Its going to snow. A LOT in some areas, but can't pin down exact areas, but for Shelby I'd expect 6" or so with the possibility of it being much more. It should begin around noon or so and really get heavy by dark. Good snow rates overnight and I won't be surprised to hear thunder around here in the middle of the night with good dynamics overhead. By sometime on Sunday it should wind down, but with the upper system closing off on top of us, its hard to say when it really ends. Usually our snows don't last much past 12 hours or so. We'll see.

More Technical Discussion Below:

On the RUC, its becoming obvious I think that this southern stream system isnt' going to bypass us to the south. Long story short, on the last panels you can clearly see full phase and negative tilt shortwave trough well west into Louisian and southern Mississippi. If the RUC is right, a tremendous explosion of moisture is going to expand over Alabama, all of GA, eastern Tennessee, and all the Carolinas by late Saturday. A good bulk of the southeast. Surface low should begin sudden dropping and bombing in the Northeast Gulf tomorrow evening, spreading very heavy snow from eaastern Alabama across Atlanta ( should be start as rain, quickly to snow due to evap cooling and intense rates) and just west of Columbia and Fayetteville, up to RDU . The snow shield will become an axis of heavy rates along the northwest flank, roughtly I-85 corridor and as the low deepens to near 1000 mb around the Florida panhandle, the extreme divergence and cold conveyor belt processess will create heavy banding with Thundersnow possible near the immediate north side of the dissolving phasing Vort, probably near ATL and western SC. As the low deepens into the 995 mb or so along the coast of Georgia , the axis of heavy snow is covering most of the Carolinas and eastern Tennesse (i'm going further west based on RUC and trends), while the eastern sections near the coast have rain and sleety/ mixing will get close to 95 over night, but all heavy wet snow just west of there and the inverted trough is already showing up along the Savannah River Valley for the Upstate and Foothills/western Piedmont, where the inflection point and upper dynamics cause stationary bands of heavy snow all night. An 850 low develops in western South Carolina which usually creates high snow fall rates as well through cyclonic pva aloft and excellent dynamics (thundersnow possible)
By morning, the snow may still be going if the 5H cuts off over the Tennessee Valley, meanwhile this stalls and deepens the coastal along the Outter banks, or possibly just inland. Extremely heavy snow for eastern Carolinas at that time, with winds increasing, and any areas that changed to rain or mix, go back to heavy snow. The storm deepens and slowly crawls the coast as a blizzard.
Snow totals should be hefty and even some accumulations near the Florida border is possible. Some areas of the piedmont and coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas probably are going to exceed 12"

This is the most dynamic setup for the Southeast as far as snow and wind potential in a long time, and some analogs are January 22, 1987. Its rare to have a 500 mb system cutoff so far south, see a phasing of the streams, negative tilt trough possibly, and experience snow rates and a "bombing" low so far south, but thats what appears to be on order.
Drive safe, make plans now to be snowed in a couple of days in some areas. The cold comes in with a vengeance afterwards, but looks like a warm up is on the way by middle of next week.

Christmas Snow, but how much?

2010-12-24T02:03:00.000-05:00

All models trended west tonight, after losing the big Christmas snowstorm. The weather forecasts have a huge bust potential on this one because of many reasons. Right now we are just getting better sampling into the radiosonde network but it will take until Friday morning before the northern stream is captured better, and thats the tricky part.
By 36 and 48 hours from this writing, the northern stream is going to be coming very close to the low that is coming off the Texas coast, and this has been the crucial deciding point all along: Does the northern stream capture and phase with the Gulf low, or does it squash it? We still don't know and won't until more time becomes available. The trends tonight though leave the door wide open from everything to scattered flurries here to several inches of Snow, starting Christmas morning. The general idea is , the futher east you get into the Carolinas, the better the chance at real significant snow, but this doesnt' mean that the western Carolinas are totally out of the range of a potential big snow. There's a pretty big chance that the gulf low will get swept up into the Florida panhandle and then start deepening rapidly and we'll have to see just how strong it gets and its exact path before we can know how much snow, and where.

Above are the American and Canadian models valid Saturday Evening 7pm. The waves we're watching in the northern stream are circled and could be the catalyst for sudden storm development in the Gulf.

I'll put out another update after lunchtime on Christmas Eve. Merry Christmas!

The Christmas Snowstorm is in Big Danger

2010-12-23T13:41:00.000-05:00

There is a close call, as close as it gets in the meteorology world. The European model now doesn't phase the two streams needed for the big snow it was showing, until a few miles too late. All models now have different solutions and its a sign that this pattern is chaotic.
By Friday, the Texas storm is weakening and is being affected by the northern jetstream but here's where we can't say for sure what happens. Do the two pieces of energy merge and form one big storm in the Southeast or Gulf states?
Right now, most model trends say no. The way it looks it will happen is that the northern stream will usher in a strong cold front early Saturday for the Western Carolinas and that may be accompanied by a dying band of moisture (snow flurries or light snow) or that moisture could totally evaporate which is much more common in this setup. Meanwhile the Gulf low is waiting on the next piece of northern stream energy , and if it digs far enough south to merge with the Gulf low, then we'd have a big storm coming up the Southeast coastline, but right now thats probably not likely. Instead it would like just be a weak low grazing the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas, with light to moderate snow, posssibly good accumulating snow in eastern NC, and then the storm heads out to sea, only to recurve back inland somewhere in the Northeast later on. We'd be left high and dry, but cold.

Its really going to be a waiting game to see how the actual solution plays out. Its possible none of the models are handling things properly around eastern Texas and Louisiana area. That is going to be the crucial deciding point for areas in Georgia and the Carolinas inland sections. But I have to say the odds have gone down tremendously on getting any accumulating snow here on Christmas Day. But we have to keep watching this one, as it could be ripe for surprises at the very last minute.

Whatever the weather, Have a very Merry Christmas!

Southeast Prepares For Major Christmas Snowstorm

2010-12-22T16:03:00.000-05:00

The king weather model, the European model, continues to remain adamant about an unusual perhaps once in a Hundred year event. For 3 full days now its insisted on an Historic Southeast Snowstorm of almost unmatched proportions. And it begins Christmas Day. All the other computer models have been catching up to this solution as well. Theres several key players that are all poised to come together to create this rare opportunity:
1) An historic blocking signature in Canada, which is perfectly placed to create a split in the flow
2) A strong storm system coming into southern California right now will take the southern track and
3) The southern storm will join forces with a strong northern system over the Gulf Coast region: This is extremely rare but has happened to some degree for example March 1993 "the Superstorm of the Century" which buried northern Georgia and the Appalachians
4) Unusually cold air aloft and extreme dynamics in the upper levels, which again is incredibly far south thanks to the forcing from the historic blocking going on over the continent.

In a nutshell, there is going to be a strong Southeast snowstorm, but at this time the exact track can't be pinned down for certain. However, we have enough information to believe that much of Georgia and the Carolinas will see an accumulating snowfall that will grow very intense and very far inland as the storm begins to deepen off the Georgia coast.

The snow should begin in the western Carolinas northern Georgia by around midday on Christmas Day. Overnight Christmas Night the storm will begin to "bomb" which is a term usually only associated with Nor'easters that affect New England. Sunday looks like a very snowy day in the Carolinas. The beaches or coastal plain may experience a change to sleet or mix briefly, depending on if the storm cuts just inland. At one point, this storm is poised to drop barometric pressure down to 975mb while located near the Outer Banks of North Carolina, which would be a true blizzard for the eastern half of the state I believe. The upper low cuts off over the southern Appalachians mountains which could stall the storm and pull it slightly more inland. This is a strong possibility with such a meridional flow in the atmosphere.

Make plans now in case this already dangerous looking storm gets any stronger than forecast. There could be downed trees, and power lines from the weight of the heavy snow and high winds in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Following the storm, very cold air will usher in and the snow will not melt very fast. The region could come to a virtual standstill. The storm looks like it will continue to crawl up the East Coast and some areas are going to get a record snowfall from this.

As far as snow amounts: its too far out to predict. In short, I'll say "a lot" is likely. I'll give more updates as needed on this developing situation.
Here is an animation depicting what the European Model is suggesting: I'd expect minor deviations but this is a rough idea beginning with Christmas Eve and ending the Day after Christmas.

Historic, Never-Before-Seen Snowstorm Could be on the Way

2010-12-22T02:26:00.000-05:00

The weather world was taken by storm, literally, overnight when the Worlds best computer model (the ECMWF) continued onward with its generation of a once in a lifetime snowstorm across most of Georgia and the Carolinas , starting bright and early Christmas morning. Folks, this is one you'll be telling your grandkids about one day if this model verifies. There's still time for things to change but this model again has the absolute best track record and has been steadfast in showing an unbelievable setup for a rare snowstorm and even BLIZZARD that would make New England proud in it's best Winters. But, this is the south. We're not supposed to get over 1 foot of snow in places like Macon Georgia and Columbia and Spartanburg and Charlotte , or almost 2 feet in Raleigh and Fayetteville and Richmond. Even Atlanta would have a hum-dinger of a White Christmas with this one.
The reason? There are several unique and extremely rare things going on in the atmosphere that usually do not happen. Its a culmination of the perfect set of events. First, the negative Arctic Oscillation. Its off the charts and has been for a while. This is just a fancy number that meteorologists give to a blocking High Pressure over Greenland and Canada. Its the reason the Southeast has been so cold lately. We're pushing toward the coldest December on record, and now I think we will hit that in NC, SC and GA. Whats more, its been going on a couple weeks now, and combined with another historic low, the Arctic Oscillation, and you can finally combine that with one more rarity: Split Flow! Its how the southern states get its snow in the first place. We have all these factors, plus some, and the ECMWF model (commonly called the European Model) is well known for handling extreme situations very well. But still, even after all these consistent runs we can't say for certain such an extreme event will truly happen. The odds are though, that some place , somewhere in the Southeast, is in for a very wild ride. If this storm does happen, then the region will come to a standstill for days on end. Its an epic storm like I've never seen progged before, and I've looked at countless past snowstorms in the area. This one could top them all.

"I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas"

2010-12-21T07:46:00.000-05:00

Snow in the Southeast On Christmas Day 1947

The last time Shelby had a White Christmas was in 1947. Just like most of our snowfalls, a low came out of the Gulf and hit cold air over the area, and it snowed 6" in Charlotte, 3" in Greenville and 5" in Shelby. The trends on all the computer guidance is that we're going to match it or exceed it. But there's still a few items to watch. I'll start to give a much more detailed synopsis of whats going to happen after the afternoon model runs have completed. Its pretty amazing we have such a good chance at a significant snow in this area for any month, but to have a big snowfall on Christmas Day is stunning. And the snow should be widespread in the Southeast, if this plays out like I think it will. Santa will get a chance to use Rudolph's red nose for something other than fog this time around here. Oh, and the bitter arctic blast that sweeps in after this storm....another record setter, just like the previous two cold outbreaks we've had this month. BRRRRR what a pattern!

Damp, Dreary Saturday

2010-12-17T21:30:00.000-05:00

A weak southern system will be crossing the Gulf coast in tandem a weak upper level system will be crossing the region midday on Saturday. Look for spotty showers or sprinkles to develop, with some drizzle, and temperatures holding steady in the upper 30s to near 40 most of the day. As the light precip ends after dark, there could be pockets over Cleveland County where a few wet snow flakes mix in. Further east toward Charlotte and especially east of there to near Raleigh have a little better chance at combining the cold and the moisture, to turn the rain over to a mix or even all snow there. Some spots may accumulate up to 1" of snow in eastern or central NC tomorrow evening. We turn cold again for the next few days with periods of clippers coming toward us, so for Shelby it looks like some sunny days, followed by a few patches of light rain for a few hours on Tuesday or so, then colder and clearing out just in time for a new system to arrive near Christmas. Right now, that looks like it may drop snow in the mountains and possibly the northern piedmont, with light rain and sprinkles in Shelby area. I'll continue to monitor these systems. For our area in NC, none of these patterns are substantial precip makers. We're in the same repetitive pattern, where southwest NC from Forest City to Charlotte, misses out on the good moisture.As long as the blocking stays in Canada, we can keep expecting the same conditions, but eventually, the pattern will break down and much warmer air will finally return.

A little bit of snow and sleet overnight, early Thursday

2010-12-15T14:41:00.000-05:00

It now looks like a little snow and sleet accumulation is possible, but doesn't appear to be that big a deal yet. Snow is already on the west side of the mountains and the models have it arriving in Cleveland County around midnight or shortly after. The snow will be extremely light, and scattered, not widespread. So one part of the area may have flurries and another adjacent town have nothing. But eventually most everyone around the western Carolinas will have a little snow overnight, and by dawn it should already be changing over to sleet from west to east. Again, that won't be heavy, but with our cold ground and the temperatures remaining below freezing until around 9 or 10 am, everything that falls will stick. So , if youre in an area with a heavier batch of precipitation, some accumulations could make the roads slick in a hurry. The freezing rain threat is almost zilch. Our wind will be southerly and our temps will be rising very fast, so I'm expecting a direct shift from snow to sleet to rain. Further north in NC, more snow and sleet, and into Virginia, they have a good chance for 3" or more of snow and then followed by a major ice storm, especially further west into western Virginia, extreme northwest NC foothills north of Wilkesboro, and into northeast Tennessee and eastern Kentucky. Some of those areas are looking at enough freezing rain to knock out power , possibly, unless most of the precip falls as snow and sleet.
The weekend storm , if any, is on shaky ground. I don't feel enough confidence to call for a major snow here, but I can't rule it out yet, just because the European model has lost it. We need another day to completely rule it out (and even if it does come back fully, still no guarantees in Cleveland County as our temps are likely to be borderline and won't be settled until later).
Enjoy the light snow overnight, and early morning. Drive carefully and keep a watch on the radars. The "virga" will be overhead for a few hours before anything hits the ground. These type of systems are sneaky.

Snow Thursday? Not very much at all

2010-12-14T12:13:00.000-05:00

Rumors of snow filling the airwaves, but I am backing down from this threat. The models keep all the good moisture to our north and west, and its hard to argue against that. Also, our temps aloft are going to go into rapid warming mode by Thursday morning, meaning any snow to start is going to be extremely brief all over NC, not just here in Shelby area. The bottom line is this isn't a good setup for major snow or ice, we don't have high pressure to keep in the cold, and the system doesn't come from a direction to drop much moisture here, however toward the I-40 corridor, there could be some more accumulation before they switch over to plain rain as well. In the end, there's not much moisture with this where we are, just some token flakes or sleet pellets, then drizzle in the middle of the day at best.
Next up, an interesting Saturday and Sunday forecast. We have a little time to pin that down. I'll focus on that one after this next event is winding down.

Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain and Rain- - We May get it all

2010-12-13T23:22:00.000-05:00

First off, its pretty amazing looking at the snowcover map over North America -- the snow stretches clear from the North Pole to western North Carolina and Georgia right now, with no breaks. You don't see that often! Maggie Valley had 12", Boone had atleast 7.5" with more falling tonight, and its so windy with Blizzard Conditions, no accurate measurement can be ascertained, and once again as I alerted my readers to last week, Shelby stay UNDER FREEZING again. We'll likely do that again on Tuesday.
Next up, precip is slated to begin coming in our way late Wednesday night and the models are trickling further south. At first, it appeared to be very borderline for NC, still is tricky, but the trends are colder, with more precip falling and even including our area of NC.
I think light snow begins overnight Wed. or very early Thursday morning, but the timing is still iffy. The earlier it begins, the more opportunity it will have to start and stay snow longer. But, the snow WILL change over to something else within a few hours, most likely , Sleet. Then freezing rain. I can't say what quantities of either one we'll have yet, but I'll fine tune this as time goes along. I'm not sure we get above freezing on Thursday, we likely will, but probably after most of the precip has already fallen. And remember, our ground will be frozen solid by then anyway from spending 60 hours in sub 32 degree air....things could get slick real quick!

MegaBlock Takes Shape Over North America--translation-Snow, Ice, Cold

2010-12-12T15:45:00.000-05:00

As we mentioned in early December the models were heading toward a very amplified, unusual state across the Globe, and we in the states are the primary beneficiaries. A "Mega Blocking" signature over Greenland has formed and is responsible for the 12 to 18" snowfall in western NC last weekend, the clipper snows in the Piedmont of NC, and todays mountain snows, as well as now the Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia snow, not to mention the incoming cold spell. Once again, our temperatures will struggle to hit 30 degrees on both Monday and Tuesday in Shelby and probably not to freezing in Charlotte as well. All the while , a blizzard is ongoing in the high mountain passes of NC and Tennessee, with snow accumulations as far south as Georgia, very near Atlanta and northern Alabama.
This cold air should lock in most of the week, and by Wednesday night, some overrunning moisture will work its way into our cold and very dry air. Snow and sleet should begin to break out over the western Carolinas around dawn Thursday and turn over to freezing rain. By then, our ground will be frozen solid. Accumulations are likely all over the Carolinas north of Columbia and west of the outer Banks.

Beyond this, the models are developing a Gulf low, and have been hinting at it for several days... another result of the extreme high latitude blocking going on. This blocking should force cold air to push much further south than normal over the next 2 weeks, and we have to monitor systems coming into California and taking the low road..normally, this type of setup is a snow and ice maker for the Carolinas and other parts of the Southeast. Theres still too much that can change on the storm track, we could either miss the system entirely to the south and east, or the system could fail to develop due to too much northern stream energy, or the system could travel directly up Interstate 85 in classic 1980's fashion, on to the Northeast as a major Nor'easter. I'll post more on the threat if its still there, but for now the pattern looks to be repetetive and cold, with moisture arriving every few days, and snow reaching unusually far south.

central to eastern TN, northern Al, and GA, and the mountains of NC all get hit with some snow the next 2 days

Valid Dec 22 2010...the strong blocking continues.

Only time will tell if this pattern will become one that you'll be telling your Grandkids about someday, but overall , I'd say the upper level maps resemble the best maps of "long gone Yore", such as the 1960's and late 1970s. Blocks of this magnitude usually do strange things. Like, make it snow around here.

Full-On Blizzard NC /TN Mountains, Very cold Outbreak, Ice Threat Late Week

2010-12-10T11:33:00.000-05:00

Still looks like a much colder outbreak on the way. It arrives in western NC by midday Sunday. But before then, we have a cold front which drops a nice quick rainfall across the Southeast. Its a close call for the NC mountains Saturday night after midnight. The atmosphere could be just cold enough to be mostly or all snow in places like Asheville and Boone, but right now its too close to say for sure, and the predominant thinking is rain ahead of the cold front, not snow. I wouldn't be suprised though to see a quick surprise 6" of snow from this though. The bigger deal arrives immediately around dawn Sunday morning with upslope snowfall commencing for the Apps, and snowflakes even reaching down to Atlanta. Parts of Alabama and North Georgia could get some accumulating snow showers with this cold air as well, but usually very little if any snow showers cross over the mountains in NC, but there could be a few stray flakes Sunday evening.
Temperatures will be diving and the winds will pickup to 30 mph. Hold on to your hat Sunday night and Monday across the Carolinas and northern Georgia. A full blizzard will be raging in eastern Tennessee and western NC with heavy upslope snowfall, and bitter cold wind chills. You don't want to be stuck in weather like this in the high country, so if your'e travelling that way, take extra precautions. Temps will stay in the teens in the mountains on Monday, and only get into the middle and upper 20's outside the mountains in places like Atlanta Charlotte and Raleigh.
Beyond this, we have to watch southern moisture trying to sneak into the Southeast by late Wednesday. Things could begin to ice up at some point Wednesday night or Thursday, but we'll talk more about that later. First the cold wave and mountain blizzard.

Unusual Blocking Pattern Paves Way for Another Arctic Outbreak in a Few Days

2010-12-08T15:32:00.000-05:00

ANOTHER COLD BLAST ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON! This next cold outbreak could rank up pretty highly on the list of big cold North Carolina cold waves of the past, such as 1985, 1989 and 1996, but probably won't surpass any of those. Still, here are my thoughts as of now on the matter:

Monday temperatures will hold steady under partly cloudy skies with possibly some stray snowflakes across the county, but the big story will be the high winds and extremely cold bitter arctic airmass. Temperatures around Shelby most likely will remain under 25 degrees during the afternoon, and by dark temperatures will already be in the teens. Snow will pile up in vast quantities across Boone, Beech Mountain and the NC high country. Snow advisories may make it all the way down to Asheville and the north Georgia mountains.
By Tuesday morning temperatures will be cold clear down to Key West and Miami, with all-time record lows possible for the Sunshine state. Miami's record low of 30 is in jeopardy on a couple of mornings. The citrus crop is will take a big hit.
Tuesday will once again be a fridig one with a 516 lobe of the Polar Vortex having been dropped on Washington DC, with atmospheric heights of atleast 5 standard deviations below normal, meaning cold air will continue gushing due south, placing the Polar Bear's crushing vice grip directly on the eastern seaboard. Almost all areas of North Carolina will stay under 30 degrees Tuesday, except a few beaches near Wilmington. Places like Charlotte and Atlanta will be in the middle 20's during the afternoon once again, with mountain communities truly in the icebox, and Asheville won't crack 18 degrees neither Monday or Tuesday. Some of the outbanks of NC could experience rare "sound effect snow", when the winds blow just right to pickup moisture and deposit snow streamers on the banks, similar to Lake Effect snow further north.
By Wednesday, the incredibly Greenland blocking signature is literally off the charts, and the flow is superamplified in an extremely rare alignment, that assures sustained cold delivery to the Southeast and Midatlantic States. The charts for days have been highlighting Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia and especially the Carolinas to be the main beneficiaries of the lowest departures from normal.
By Thursday and Friday, the cold vortex has pulled warmer air around it to its north, and well westward into Canada, and the southern stream begins to get active. Moisture should begin to approach the Southern states at the end of the week, with a strong arctic high ridging down from central Canada, so the northern shield of precip could be icy or white.

This is a view of the Medium range ECMWF and GFS models over the northern hemisphere. I've never seen blocking forecast to this extreme. Normally , when heights build over Greenland or eastern Canada, the Southeast states get cold, and eventually stormy. La Nina Winters usually feature wild swings in weather, and we're now in the cold phase of the pattern shift. At some point, we'll switch back to the warm phase and have extremely warm weather. The odds favor January at this point. During the transition will be the highest chance of some type of Winter storm.

Day 8 to Day 10 High Latitude Extreme Blocking

Cold Start to December- - You think This is cold?

2010-12-02T19:36:00.000-05:00

The pattern change I posted about last week has arrived. Get used to the cold air, its here to stay awhile. And should be re-inforced in atleast 2 waves during the upcoming days. A "clipper" system will zip through the Carolinas and Tennessee on Saturday evening, dropping snow in its wake for the mountains and possibly the northern parts of NC (Shelby may get sprinkles or flurries--usually we get skipped with clippers though), and then cold air comes really rushing back in. A giant vortex in Maine will stay put for several days, sending lobes of Canadian air deep into the South. Monday and Tuesday may be hard pressed to reach 40 degrees in most of Cleveland County, and our morning lows will go from 20's on a few mornings to some teens most likely by Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Head to the mountains if you're in the mood for some snow. The period from late Saturday until about next Wednesday and Thursday will feature off and on snowshowers, that will add up on the northwest facing slopes to around 12" or more by the end of it. You'll be able to see these snow covered Apps nicely from a drive along highway 74- just peer west and northwest through the week.

Later in the week a warm up, but probably not much, and that most likely won't last. Already there's signs of another cold outbreak, and we will have to watch a front coming in as well, to see what happens when moisture bumps into our cold air.

If a Winter storm threat arises, check back to see if the rumors are true.

Rainy Day and Night Coming up...Then Colder and hmm...Snow next week?

2010-11-30T10:28:00.000-05:00

First we have to get through today and tonight. A line of severe weather is developing and already tornado watch boxes are up to the South of western North Carolina. Our cold northeast winds will gradually switch to the southeast and south later this evening, putting most of Cleveland County into the warm, unstable air. Be alert this evening as some parameters could come together to give our region another taste of severe weather, with all the ingredients in place for some weak tornadoes to form close by. In addition, heavy rain will sweep across the county as the evening and overnight wears on.
By Wednesday, the front clears out and we begin turning colder. This is the beginnning of a different pattern, and a "Greenland" block is forecast to form and hold sway, which means the eastern United States will turn colder for a while. As you go out toward 5 days and beyond, several models have a new low coming into California and taking a southern track. The GFS model dampens out this feature, but enough ensembles and the ECMWF model keep the southern storm in tact, and sweep a snowstorm across Dixie in about 7 to 9 days from now. For now, its just something to watch. I wouldn't expect any model to have all the atmospheric features placed properly yet, but the one thing to expect for certain is that colder air is coming in time to put you in the Holiday Spirit...no more 70's for a while.

If the models continue to show our first threat of snow or ice for next week, check back here.
Below is the ECMWF 500MB heights showing the storm in question , as it tracks across the southern states. Normally, a split flow system, with blocking in parts of Canada or Greenland, is how the Carolinas and northern Georgia see snow. We'll see if this map is realistic soon enough.

Update on the Sunday-Monday Storm

2010-09-25T12:29:00.000-04:00

This looks like the "Big Dog" weather event for the Western Carolinas and north Georgia, since the cold, wet, and snowy Winter of last season. Basically, in a nutshell, all the new weather model runs have come in wetter, stormier and more agreement, and now the Hemispheric Prediction Center (HPC) is on board with a strong cutoff low pressure parking itself in the most judicious position to maximize both duration and quantity of a Heavy Rain Event.
Somewhere between Shelby, Spartanburg, Forest city and Lake Lure could get upwards of 5" of rain from this 2 day storm. Even more is possible in upper Rutherford County around Golden Valley to the South Mountain Chain of Upper Cleveland County, and again in the Great Smokies. This is where true upslope flow will rush into the hills, wringing out an efficient moisture supply to the max.
Flash Flood Watches will likely be issued soon for the Sunday and Monday Deluge.

Big-Time Rain Event Arriving this Weekend. Sunday's a Wash-out !

2010-09-24T13:52:00.000-04:00

Finally, all the region gets a widespread, soaking rain event, but for some of us, eventually this could be a little too much rain. Right now looks like the mountains and around Lake Lure stand the best chances for excessive rains, but we'll have to keep a watch on radars this Sunday and Monday to see exactly where the truly heavy flooding rains will be. The rain should begin late Saturday night, or by Sunday morning, and grow heavier through Sunday. The end of this prolonged wet spell may come Monday evening, or as late as middle of the week...too early to say yet. Here's my first thoughts on some rainfall totals (strange to be making a map of rain totals, like we do in the Winter for snow, but rain has gotten to be more rare as snow it seems).

Possible Rainfall Totals of the Multi-day Storm...

Major Rain Event Looking More Likely Starting this Weekend, and Next Week

2010-09-23T08:26:00.000-04:00

The three big models ECM, GFS and GGEM are all big rainmakers for the Southeast, especially Georgia and the Carolinas, and again under the ULL. The 00Z and 06Z GFS are really big deals, both in their placement of the ULL and the features that deliver the big rain. First, starting Saturday night the front slams on the brakes as winds back, and the front will be a strong focus across the central and western Carolinas to north Ga with the first band of stationary, training cells that likely would go on until and through part of Sunday. Then, as the ULL begins to take shape, new moisture will be pulled into the Southern Apps and the high over the Northeast will aid moisture banked right into the spine of the southern Apps. As this high heads offshore next week then stays put, tropical plumes will get pulled into and wrap around the ULL over most of the Southeast and with a decaying front, the on top of the southern Apps, inverted trough near the Apps or just west, and a strong Bermuda high that is stationary (per GFS for several days) all point to an extreme rain event. This is before any organized tropical system gets infused.
Then later next week, depending on where and if the cutoff is still in tact, tropical moisture would get pulled up the East Coast somewhere, likely the central and eastern Carolinas, which would yield a big rain event over a large region. This could help many in the drought regions. From western Kentucky, to eastern Alabama , then up the East Coast, if the cutoff materializes as planned.

Most models (shown is GFS) drop a strong cutoff low west of the Apps,and meander for days.

DROUGHT to be the Buzzword Next Several Months

2010-09-15T12:22:00.000-04:00

Could the city of Shelby be facing a water crisis over the next 6 months? Could be. As the developing "La Nina" cycle is gearing up and growing stronger, all across the Southeast and East Coast, already the weather patterns have responded with many states being much drier than normal for the Summer. In particular, for Cleveland County, we're no strangers to drought. The upper parts of the county have been hit with rains this Summer, but by and large, the the bulk of Rutherford and Cleveland County are well below normal in rainfall. This is especially true in the same areas that keep getting hit with long lasting droughts, around the southern edges of Cleveland and Rutherford County.

So far, less than a quarter inch of rain has fallen in the southern and western stretches of Cleveland and adjoing Rutherford Counties. And those same areas are also the lowest in rain amounts for the year so far, with between 25" and 30" of rainfall this year in those areas, while between 35" and 40" has fallen in western Rutherford County and the northeastern part of Cleveland County--a huge difference, but one that seems to be commonplace this decade. Normally, looking at the 30 year average rain map, we're all about the same, however the theme for this decade is a much dryer southern half of both counties, thanks to the new flow regime of northwest winds.

You can see this year the northern mountains in NC, and Tennessee, as well as the Upstate region of SC down to central South Carolina, as well as eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia are in a growing dry spell, however the long term drought's hardcore region continues to batter a general area from western South Carolina and along and just northwest of the Interstate 85 corridor to near Shelby . As you get into the Charlotte and Hickory region, the "drought tangent zone", the effects of Summertime convergence yields an area of much increased rainfall for that area.

The rivers and wells are responding quickly around the Spartanburg to Forest City and Shelby areas now, having received very little rainfall this Summer and now with a long dry September. In fact, the remainder of the month looks dry, barring an incoming tropical system, which still looks ulikely. (However the last few days of the month could open the door to a hit).


Last 12 years have seen steady decline in the ground water. The exception was a wet 2003 area-wide. The small blip in beginning of 2010 was the El Nino, which ended in early Spring.

Take a look at this groundwater well near Spartanburg. Its history goes back to the early 1990's, and you can see normally you only had to go to about 36 feet below ground to get water, then in 1998 things began changing abruptly and almost every year since then the new depth to hit water dropped to near 48 feet below ground surface, meaning the water level had dropped an astonishing 12 more feet. Its no coincidence in my drought study that incorporates data from the 1998 to 2002 "Super Drought Years" and up until now, that a small area from around upper Spartanburg County to southern Cleveland County is around 10 to 12 FEET below normal in rainfall during this time. In other words, that small area of real estate has been Dead Center of the longest lived drought region I could find in the data going back over 100 years. No other time span in our lifetimes have a long lived drought right in our back yards, that even comes close to what we're experiencing now.The area south of highway 74 in Cleveland County is between 10 and 12 feet below normal in rainfall since 1998...over 120" of rain that should have fallen, hasn't.

In fact, many wells in South Carolina are heading toward the lowest points, the result of not only this current dry spell, but the cumulative effects of many years of drought in succession. If the current "La Nina" behaves as normal, then the ground water will continue to drop steadily through the Autumn months and reach near-reocrd lows. Also, the stream flow in much of the East continues to decline. In our own First Broad River, the source of Shelby's drinking water, the river is running only around 11% capacity around Casar, NC and the Jacob Fork River in South Mountains is even lower, running around 9% of normal.

Back in October 2002, when the First Broad River nearly evaporated completely, it was the result of an extremely dry Summer over the entire western North Carolina region, and the cumulative effects of nearly 4 straight years of widespread below normal rains. However, only the future will show just how quickly we could get to that point again. I think its safe to say that given our long term dry spells that Cleveland County has endured, if the headwater region in Upper Rutherford and Cleveland County continue to be dry, it won't be long before the rivers respond with much lower water output. Indeed, they are already responding.

The gage at Big Broad River continues to drop as well. Since water records at the gage house began there in the 1920's, an astonishing 6 years of the top 8 years of the lowest river flow in Boiling Springs have all occurred in the last 11 years
Here are the lowest annual river flows at Broad River in Boiling Springs, NC: Clearly, the long term drought along the headwaters of the River is taking its toll.

Lowest River Flow (discharge in cubic feet per second)

8. 2009    867 feet
7. 1999    850 feet
6. 1955    805 feet
5. 2000    793 feet
4. 1988    767 feet
3. 2001    627 feet
2. 2002    578 feet
1. 2008    538 feet

Here are the lowest instantaneous Gage Heights itself:

(1) 0.38 ft on 09/10/1925
(2) 0.80 ft on 07/23/1926
(3) 0.88 ft on 10/27/1931
(4) 0.98 ft on 08/12/2002
(5) 1.21 ft on 08/21/2007
(6) 1.33 ft on 06/21/2008

I walked across the Big Broad River at the Boiling Springs Greenway in the Summer of 2008, without getting a toe wet. Below is a picture of another river-goer, doing the same thing:

During the 2002 drought, Shelby's faucet's began to run dry, with the city depleting almost all the First Broad had left to give. It nearly ran completely dry, but a burgeoning "El Nino" wetter pattern was about to start up in October and arrived just in time to offer a reprieve. I'm afraid, considering the long term record droughts that Cleveland County has already endured, if the area as a whole were to go through another widespread, strong drought year, then we'll be seeing pictures like this again very soon. (Courtesy Shelby Star)

I'll keep monitoring the rainfall situation and keep my readers abreast of the latest rainfall chances , as well as issue a Winter Outlook by the end of October. Until then, all we can do is pray for rain and make the best of our resources and plan our future's river and water supply very judiciously. The weather patterns have shifted to a long term basis, not just a blip of an occurence anymore, so the new data that comes out soon regarding the 30 year average rainfall for the area will show a massive drop, especially in Shelby's official numbers.

Hurricane Season 2010 Getting Active Now (Updated Aug 29, 2010)

2010-08-29T09:52:00.001-04:00

Several named storms are imminent in the Atlantic. "Danielle" was a CAT 3 but is no threat to the Atlantic Coast. "Earl" however needs to be watched closely for the Outer Banks this week, but still most models take it northward just off the Atlantic Coast, but we'll definitely continue to monitor it's track.

After "Earl", a developing "Fiona" looks like it will pose a threat to some part of the Southeast or East Coast in about 9 or 10 days from now. The ECMWF model runs have been bringing a powerful Hurricane "Fiona" into the South Carolina coast, and each new run shifts the impact zone somewhat, from Florida to North Carolina. The cone of error this far out in hurricane modeling is huge, so more deviations in track can be expected.
The exact location of her landfall (even if there is one) will be determined by the Bermuda High location, and if a north-central Atlantic trough can "tug" on her some, helping pull it further north. Most models tug at it briefly but the trough is too far removed to pull it completely northbound into the Atlantic, like Danielle. This would leave Fiona on a course for the Southwest Atlantic Ocean, a track just north of Puerto Rico and possibly threatening that Island, as well as the Bahamas and eventually the Southeast Coast from Florida to the Carolinas. There is no definitive forecast yet for her. I'll monitor the latest guidance and post here when her track becomes clearer.

Previous run of ECMWF model hit SC in 10 days

the 00Z run of the ECMWF 8-29-2010 shifs Fiona south and hits Florida, versus old run hitting SC

Severe Thunderstorms Merge Over Cleveland County August 5, 2010

2010-08-05T23:11:00.000-04:00

Click Picture to Animate approximately 70 minute loop

An animated gif, showing the developing cell from Spartanburg as it collided with a wave of thunderstorms cresting over the Appalachians during the late afternoon of August 5, 2010. Much of southern Cleveland County was raked by a violent storm that erupted with this collision, yielding strong updrafts, extremely heavy rain, high winds, vivid constant lightning and power outages. The storm dropped nearly 3" of rain near Earl and Patterson Springs, with widespread 1" to 2.5" over much of the highway 74 corridor and points south.

Drought Study 2010

2010-07-22T17:55:00.001-04:00

The Drought Years of 1999 Until Current

The drought study 10 years in the making is complete. This study looks at how prevailing winds shifted in the Summer months back in the late 1990's, which has dramatically shifted rain patterns in the lee of the Appalachian Mountains most of the last decade. It provides hard data, as well as mentions natural phenomena that imply the current decade-long drought is the worst in modern times for this relatively small region.

The paper focuses specifically on Upstate South Carolina and the southern piedmont and southern foothill region of western North Carolina. It looks at rainfall amounts, and numerous other weather data, during the Summer, and the entire year, at such sites as Shelby, Hickory, Charlotte, and Greenville-Spartanburg.

I hope you find it a fascinating discussion.

Click link below to read (must have a pdf reader) Be patient as the paper loads. Can take up to 2 minutes to appear.

Historical Drought in the Lee of the Southern Appalachians

Congratulations On Your Snow...Winter Wrap up.

2010-03-02T13:56:00.000-05:00

I'm afraid our air temperatures at the surface will hold right around 33, give or take a degree, for most everybody who is at our elevation. You have to be up around 1500 feet and higher to get to 32 degrees. All the surface observations look like 33 or so for the official airport readings this midday, from Atlanta to Greenville, Charlotte, Forest City, Shelby, Hickory , Morganton and Winston Salem. Only the higher elevations like Asheville and Boone are below 32 for this storm.

So that fact, plus its a daytime snowfall, should preclude snow accumulations for the low landers, however it doesn't take away from the fact this is a GORGEOUS snowfall--at times the flakes are 50 cent piece in southern Cleveland County, and its during those bands we can get a slushy accumulation (which melts quickly once it ends).

At any rate, the upper low is approaching Macon, Georgia now, and will continue to spiral bands of snow along our region, even perhaps a clap of thunder or 2, with some intense bands of snow for someone. Overall, the big winners of the heaviest accumulations look like the mountains of northern Georgia, and western North Carolina.

This makes about 4 Winter storms for the Shelby area.. 1 snow to sleet to freezing rain/sleet storm in December, then we had Two 3" inch snowfalls, and now this non- accumulating snowstorm. There have been atleast 2, maybe 3 very minor instances of some snow falling in betwixt all this. When you add into this the fact that this is the coldest Winter since 1978, then all you have to agree, this has been one amazing Winter! And for our mountains and points in northern and northwest North Carolina to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, A total Whopper , record-breaking Winter!

Spring can't come soon enough. I hope everyone has enjoyed following all the storms with me this season--its not too often we have cold air outbreaks, heavy flooding rains, and numerous snow and sleet situations to follow as frequently as has occurred this season, atleast around Cleveland County, and who knows, this may be a trend back to colder/wetter Winters, but I have certainly enjoyed following each event.

If something pops up later in the Month of March (and I wouldn't rule out something wierd even in April for parts of Rutherford or Cleveland), then I'll make an update here. Otherwise, I'll be spending less time on the computer and more time outdoors, enjoying a nice, beautiful GREEN Spring time for once!

Congratulations to all my readers from around the Southeast, in Georgia and both Carolinas, for an awesome Winter, and for following a truly Wild Winter this time. Hope we can do it all over again next season!

Robert

Still hard to pinpoint the big Winning Snowzone

2010-03-01T22:21:00.000-05:00

My thoughts still stand from earlier. One look at the water vapor satellite shows this upper low is substantially further north than any models shown for this time period. Its currently situated in central Lousiana. What is supposed to happen is that the closed low becomes elongated and "negative tilting" once it reaches western Alabama, which is rare.Very rare, and would place northern Georgia to northern Alabama in a solid shield of increasingly heavy snowfall. Further east and north into the Asheville and Shelby to Charlotte region, we are still looking more and more like we'll end up being under this same heavy snow band sometime Tuesday as the whole system rotates through Georgia. However, someone on the northern and western edges are going to be cut off, meaning theres a sharp gradient between extremely heavy snows and just flurries. Just like the February 2004 storm and the one in March 1983. Notice those storms below:

The rapid update cycle models (the ones that nailed the Dec. 2009 mega snowstorm in western NC , and our snow event Valetines Weekend) are coming even further north now, placing us directly in the heart of the heavy snow, straight across to the northern Atlanta Suburbs and near Birmingham. This will be the model to continue to watch tonight, but the event is about to start, so it really comes down to seeing how the radar looks in the morning.
Heres a satellite pic and where I think the heaviest snow bands setup on Tuesday. Amounts could range anywhere from a couple inches up to 10" in areas that get under steady slow moving snowbands and some thunderstorms. An amazing setup, that will have some surprises!

March Snowstorm !

2010-03-01T12:57:00.000-05:00

A HAMMERING OF SNOW COMING TO NORTHERN ALABAMA, GEORGIA AND PARTS OF WESTERN CAROLINAS TUESDAY...

Time is short so I'll cut to the chase. For over a week now we've been watching the models for the setup of a Southeast snowstorm. It's now on the doorstep, and is the longest-tracked snowstorm I've personally ever followed. Kudos to the European Model for latching on to the setup from over a week ago. It however, is a global model and not good for details, which means everything. So, on to the more technical models for subtle things.

None of the models are far enough north with the precip should currently developing and each new run shows the models playing "catch up", a popular theme this year. Which is also why I don't follow models explicitly, as a synoptic forecaster, I have to incorporate what normally happens when upper level features are placed and oriented in certain spots, and I've been hammering this fact for a while...so far it seems the short range models are catching up to my line of thinking. This upper low is carving its own path and will slowly spin down toward southern Mississippi and then hold in tact while curving northward into central Georgia by Tuesday midday. At the 850 mb level, a 3 contour low will work in tandem with this feature to spread snow across northern Georgia and across northern South Carolina and most of North Carolina. At one point early Tuesday, the 5H trough goes negative tilt on some models, which is very likely considering the physics of how it captures some northern energy, quickly phasing it in, and in response to the Northeast storm leaving a confluent zone behind. This will cause a sudden northward explosion on the northern side of Alabama and Georgia by dawn Tuesday and this moisture will become the deformation axis that spreads a heavy blanket of snow across the western Carolinas and eventually across the tarheel state.

In a nutshell, this storm means business much like last March 1st, where thundersnow and lightning/convection developed in the northwest quadrant and underneath the closed low as it pivoted up Interstate 85. This is a very similar situation, but its going to come down to small scale physics and nuances that decide exactly which zones get hit with thunderstorms and snow simultaneously. Roughly, Atlanta to Athens to Spartanburg to Charlotte looks likely for this convective snow possibility. Once again when the coastal low deepens Tuesday evening, a regeneration of uplift on the coastal plain and eventually Outer Banks will be the recipients of heavy wind driven snows, with a powerful, rapidly deepening cyclone.

There will most likely be a sharp cutoff just to the precip, possibly in a line from Asheville to Hickory region, like usually accompanies Upper lows, however this time a strong surface low is also forming in northern Florida, which would counteract this thought, in essence a very tough call to draw the haves and have nots.

The bottom line is a strong Upper low, working in tandem with excellent 500mb features and mid level features , with just barely cold enough air , and dynamic cooling, and some elements of convection, make this potential for an Historic Southeast Snowstorm very real..and its about to begin.

The forecast for Shelby and the highway 74 region between Forest City and Charlotte:

Becoming cloudy tonight with light snow or rain developing after midnight. Lows near freezing.
Tuesday...Snow developing around daybreak. Heavy snow and thunderstorms possibly during the afternoon. Becoming windy with temperatures holding around 32.
Tuesday night..snow ending. Lows mid 20's.
Snow accumulations across the region will vary tremendously, with some areas getting only 1" and others closer to 85 getting over 6".

Major Snowfall Possible Tuesday...

2010-02-26T19:03:00.000-05:00

I'm offering a 2 part discussion..one for facebook friends, but if you're a weather weenie and want more details, read the section below. All this is still very preliminary but the gist is that a Major Winter Storm is developing, but remains to be seen how much falls in the western Carolinas and specifically, Shelby. Here's a hint though. All the tracks being shown on the models and the upper level looks they portray have , in the past, nailed the Interstate 85 and Highway 74 crowd. Although most models are still a little drier here and peg the central and eastern Carolinas with the most snow, I think at this range, the western sections will have major accumulations with temperatures just cold enough for all snow. The further east you head, the more temperature issues will arise. Its a developing situation and one I'd follow closely, so tune back in.
The start of the event could be as early as Monday night after midnight, but is more likely around daybreak Tuesday, or even as late as midday Tuesday...all details worked out later, and "how much"...etc...

Technical Discussion...

This is my first guess, but don't hold me to it. I did a lot of consideration, but still any track could still verify. But usually this season, the models have been too weak with precip and not far enough north, so I begin in Texas, although didn't concentrate west of the Miss. River. The GFS has a good looking 5H look, but probably too broad and fast, but good at 850, whereas the NAM is superb looking, maybe too bullish there. As time marches on, I think the moisture should be much, much further north in Arkansas and Mississippi than shown but the surface reflection still weak, but strengthening rapidly as it approaches the Florida Panhandle. The Shortwave in the Midwest will begin to draw the n. Gulf low further north than most models currently have, a trend reflected all season long, so I think models will catch onto this from here on out. The one thing keeping it from getting too far north is the strong Northeast system which will be slowly pulling away, but all models have it pulling away, and have yet to adjust for a further north track.

By 84 hours to 96 hours (Tues. AM), most models have a very healthy look to the 5H low in the Gulf and it bows its omega field northward into n. Alabama and Georgia and western SC. This is where the snowfall really begins to break out, much like what happened with the mid February event. This time however, rates in the snowgrowth region are much higher and flakes much larger, with some nickel sized dendrites, and the incoming s/w on all models looks to be phasing in helping with the northward lurch of moisture. Some areas will be rain to start and the rain snow line will be difficult to know just yet, but Atlanta to the 85 corridor looks pretty snowy as long as this scenario plays out.

During this pivoting process the surface low hooks sowly across northeast Florida and comes offshore between Jax and SAV and deepens extremely rapidly. This will keep an easterly mid level deformation axis nearly stalled across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, while the northern part of SC and most of interior NC begin to snow and the rates here will pick up quickly. Over the easternmost sections of SC the changeover to rain is earlier than over eastern NC , but mostly likely mid level warming comes just inland and mixes or changes to rain , but if the storm develops more offshore, then this region remains mostly snow. Either way, eastern sections go over to snow (and very heavy/wind driven) snow as the storm gains enough lattitude and temps aloft fall on the southwest side of the low. Interior of the Carolinas and now up to central Virginia are in heavy snow, with strong lift from the phasing and lowering heights, with constantly adding 5H energy from incoming vorts into an increasingly negatively tilted system..very unprecedented.

Most models stall this system off the Outer Banks and don't lift it too far along the East Coast, but I'm going with it slowing, but indeed does crawl up the coast and grazes the big cities of the east coast. Once it gains so much lattitude however and hits the residual confluent flow, its squelched and shunted more east, leaving behind an axis of snow that tapers from southwest to northeast. Could be a very big snow in central and eastern Carolinas up to DC and eastern Maryland/se Pa and perhaps Long Island before turning eastward. If the storm deepens more than most models show, and it could, then amounts along 95 could be the same or more than the piedmont and coastal plain regions. Analogs, perhaps a blend of Jan 87 and March 2009 as far as precip overall dileneation. I'm not giving snow amount possibilites, but if the track holds up, with the phasing, then in this particular year, QPF numbers usually go up the closer you get to the event.

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More Snow Possible Across the Southeast

2010-02-23T05:27:00.000-05:00

Between now and early next week, it could snow 3 more times across places like Dallas, Atlanta and Charlotte, and most points in between. All of these "storms" are still iffy, but lets take the first one. A weak wave of low pressure begins to develop along a cold front early Wednesday across Mississippi and at the same time cold air aloft is coming into our area, light moisture should begin to overrun this frontal boundary. Right now it appears Shelby is on the western edge, but all the weather models do develop light precip, probably wet snow, around rush hour Wednesday and then taper it off by afternoon. I don't think accumulations will be a problem except on grassy areas and cartops, but it will be something to keep an eye on future model output to see just how close this becomes to something significant. The big deal could be the wind and the return to much colder air ushering in.

Up next, by early Friday another strong disturbance will be developing over the lower Plains around Oklahoma and Texas. Once again, snow flies there and streaks eastward into Arkansas and Mississippi. However by then, we have a strong cyclone sitting over New York City that is forecast to become extremely powerful and may actually supress the southern plains storm to our south. Yet, some models are actually close to bringing this system just to our south, and often times the models are a little too supressed with systems in this time range. So, something else to watch, but this one could barely miss us. Still, its worth mentioning for the fact that Dallas to Atlanta stand a reasonable shot at more snow in this unbelievable Winter.

The potential "big dog" is the final one. For several days now the models have all been adamant about developing a powerful looking low in Texas or the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday evening. This is getting really far out there, but it appears that cold air is still pouring into our region by then, and anything could happen with that storm. From total supression, to a full phase with northern energy and rain. Right now, its definitely worth watching as the most reliable models in this time range still paint a major snowfall across much of the Southeast, from about Atlanta to the Carolinas. If everything were to come together perfectly, this storm has the potential to drop around a foot of snow over a large area. But for now, thats all it is: potential. Suffice it to say, Spring weather is going to be delayed yet again. Already, this has been the coldest Winter since 1977/78....and thats something.

I'll have more updates as time goes along.

Snow Chance is Increasing for Friday afternoon

2010-02-11T18:12:00.001-05:00

Earlier in the week, we thought the low in the Gulf would stay supressed, well supressed. For the last couple of days the models have been steadily bringing this storm further and further north. Now, All of North Carolina is in atleast some snow, and the futher south you go, the more you get. Already snow is breaking out to our southwest and Dallas, Texas has set a new snow record at over 7", with more yet to come. There's still more questions than answers on this, but one thing I do know is we WONT be dealing with sleet and freezing rain this time--whatever falls will be pure white snow for the entire storm.
The big question is how much? Honestly it could be as low as a dusting, but being an el Nino Winter, and the fact that every storm has been a soaker (or dump of white if your near Washington DC), and further north than shown, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Shelby pull over 4" from this storm. But a broad brush safe call would probably be just 1" to 3" for our area, but if radar trends continue to show a further north movement and models come in tonight even further north, then amounts would only go up.
The snow will fall all the way to Atlanta, and even further south, with record - breaking snows in Montgomery, Columbus, Macon and Columbia, even all the way to Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Yes, this is an extremely unusual situation, but one I called for back in September with my Winter Outlook. We just had to wait on the perfect timing, which is hard to get in this part of the state.
Cold air and moisture arrive again by Monday, with more snow chances then. The cold pattern looks to stay around a while, with anomalous blocking at the higher lattitudes near the North pole, and an energetic southern stream to boot--a rare treat for the southern United States.
Here's my initial forecast on snow amounts: Take with a grain of salt. Click the map to enlarge!

The Forecast for Shelby and vicinity:

Snow developing Friday afternoon. Snow continues Friday night and ends early Saturday. Highs Friday mid 30's, lows Friday night in the mid 20's.
Highs Saturday upper 30's.
Snow amounts could range from a trace to 4".